Should Kings be Folded Preflop?

Given the action of one of the final hands of WNP’s action, the debate rages on about whether or not it is correct to ever fold Kings pre-flop. Ryan’s Kings vs. Martin’s Aces played out I believe as follows:

Mike limps, Woody limps, I limp, Martin limps from the late position, Ryan raises to 15, blinds fold, Mike calls, Woody calls, I call, Martin goes all in for about 700 +, Ryan calls for about 560 chips, everyone else folds.

Although there was some dead money in the pot, Martin’s bet size and Ryan’s decision on whether or not to call was close to a 1:1 decision, i.e. the pot was laying Ryan only sufficient odds to call if Ryan was convinced that he was in a coin flip or better decision. If Ryan believed he was in a better than a coin flip situation he should call, otherwise he should fold.

Though we have to use some assumptions and logic in this decision, mathematically, we can determine if Ryan’s decision was the correct decision in this situation, and if we change the player’s name from Martin to another player we can simply alter the likelihood of the nearly 3x buyin shove with a different distribution of the ranges of hands that the player might hold.

With nearly a 3x buyin shove, we can narrow the range down pretty tightly. Martin’s range, or for that matter any player’s range, is as follows:

Air: Martin may be on tilt, spaced out, needs to go home, or just feels like gambling. Martin has to my knowledge never demonstrated this type of behavior on a shove of this magnitude, but let’s say it is possible and extend the probability of an air hand at 2%. Let’s also at least narrow down “air” to a suited connector or 1 gapper, and say that true air has a near zero percent probability.

JJ or QQ Very unlikely at a nearly 700+ chip shove especially as I am in the hand (potentially) and I have Martin covered. Martin also has a history of set mining with big pair hands. Let’s extend the probability of Martin holding this type of hand at 4%, which I think is an overestimate but let’s go with it.

AK Again, very unlikely given the reason’s stated above. Let’s give AK a 4% likelihood.

KK Extremely unlikely, given that Ryan has 2 Kings in his hand. Let’s extend this possibility as statistically insignificant.

AA The only other logical hand. Let’s extend this possibility at 90% given that Martin is the player and given the set of circumstances surrounding this hand.

Ryan’s probability of winning this hand by calling Martin’s shove is as follows:

75% win rate against air hands @ 2% probability = .015
80% win rate against QQ and JJ hands @4% probability = .032
70% win rate against AK hands @ 4% probability = .028
20% win rate against AA hands @90% probability = .180


If the forecasted probabilities of the given hand ranges are accurate,
Ryan will win the hand approximately 25.5% of the time.

The tipping point as to whether to call or fold an all in shove with KK in a deep stacked hand (assuming one big shove vs. a raise re-raise situation) is determined by the likelihood of the villain holding a hand other than AA. Leaving air at 2% and assigning an equal probability to either having an underpair or AK, the decision will be a break even proposition at the following probabilities:

75% win rate against air hands @ 2% probability = .015
80% win rate against QQ and JJ hands @24% probability = .192
70% win rate against AK hands @ 24% probability = .192
20% win rate against AA hands @50% probability = .100

Win rate = .499

Replacing Martin with another villain, and assuming the pot is only laying you effectively 1:1 odds to call, the decision as to whether or not to call with KK is simply based upon the likelihood of the villain holding AA being greater than or less than 50%. If you believe that the villain’s likelihood of holding AA is greater than 50%, you should fold, if you believe it is less than 50% you should call.

To be fair to Ryan, he did point out that he had been raising a number or pots and that it was very unlikely that Martin put him on KK. At the time, I believed Ryan’s decision was a tough one that could have gone either way. With the benefit of a couple day’s rest and some analysis, I would be very surprised if anyone would say that the likelihood of Martin holding a hand other than AA was greater than 50%. Thus, the correct decision in this given set of circumstances was a fold with extra heroics if Ryan had been able to fold the KK hand face up for the table to see.

Sklansky-Chubukov Numbers

I had never heard of these before reading a forum question about them. Basically, every hole card combo is assigned a number and if it folds around to you in the SB you can make a shove decision based on the number. If your stack is at the number or lower then you can shove and have it be EV+ even against perfect play. Then there are adjustments you can make such as dividing that number by 3 for the cutoff position.

It sounds like it was published in Sklansky's No Limit Hold'em Theory and Practice (2006). I'm just surprised that I hadn't heard of this before.

Epic Hand with Jeh Chow

Few hands are anything but "standard" for the experienced poker players at WNP. I did find this hand one I played against Jeh as one of the most interesting ones I have played to date. Here is my thought process during the hand.

I have AQos and raise to 9 UTG. 3 or 4 callers including Jeh Chow in the small blind. Flop is QQJ with 2 spades. Bingo. Jeh Checks, I check, Marsh checks, can't remember if Martin was in but if so he checks. Next card off suit 2, Jeh and I are both pretty deep stacked about 500+ chips each. Jeh leads out for 15, I raise to 40, Marsh and everyone else step out of the way. Jeh re-raises to 110, I think for a long time. Marsh says out loud Jeh's pocket 2's got there. I think Jeh has a queen, just can't figure if he boated up or not, I then say out loud I really need a 10 of spades. Sometimes I tell the truth and so I think Jeh will slow down on the river if the 10 of spades does hit. A call would possibly be in order from AK suited in spades, the 10 of spades would give AK suited a royal flush. Finally, after agonizing forever, I decide to flat call.

My reasoning is if a Q or a A hit I instacall any bet on the river. If a 10 hits, Jeh likely slows down and I can show down a hand which is likely a winner, but not for sure as Jeh is acting very strong with his betting patterns. If a blank hits, I likely call but will have to just go on instinct. My guess is that if Jeh does have a Q on the river, he will lead out strong with AQ,KQ, any boat Q. If he has a weak Q, my guess is that he will either check call the river or lead out for 50-70 percent of the pot.

River is the 10 of hearts. Jeh leads out for 185 into a pot of about 250ish. What do you do?

The ultimate Jeh Chow Hand

We all kid Jeh for chasing outs (and almost always hitting!). I don't think any player alive though is weak/tight enough to fold this hand though with one card left to come. My opponent just called my turn bet but I was not folding no matter what he did. Although I only have Ace High heading to the river and no made low, just about any card makes a hand for me except pairing the board or a non club 2. Exactly how many out do I have here? Can even Jeh count this high?

Superdraw Hand

Only a matter of time...

Someone finally made what appears to be a viable home version of a television table. The guy uses RFID chips in lieu of hole cams and video cams for watching players. With cards being chipped it allows him to take that info and use homebrew software to do real time stats. Pretty slick setup and a bunch more features than the design that I had cooked up. Not for sale...yet. I think it's going to be difficult to get the price down to anything remotely reasonable for the a home game. After mine got built the plan was to sell time on the video table and ship out DVDs of the session afterwards.

Impressive.

You Guys Watch the HORSE Final Table Yet?

Wow. I don't want to spoil it, but wow.

Auto-shuffler for the home market

I've been keeping an eye on the Shuffletech shuffler for a while. It was announced months ago and seemed to be taking the route of vaporware with repeated "almost there" updates. Well units have finally shipped and I've been following the reviews on the HPT and 2+2 forums. The news has been good from a functionality standpoint, reasonably fast, effective, can de-jam itself unlike ShuffleMasters. Biggest knock on it seems to be the noise. It is not silent like the casino shufflers though it is hard to tell exactly how loud it is.

Here's a video of the machine in action. Speed of an auto-shuffler is always going to be slower than a decent manual shuffler but it is not going to be a holdup for a full table cash game. Looks like it takes about 60 seconds for a cycle and you are not going to find a ring game getting in 60 hands/hour.

Anyway, I'm going to continue monitoring the threads to get more feedback on these units. If these things are all they are advertised to be then we can expect to see a trial run at our game.

Jeh's Vegas trip report

> Here's my Martin-in-Vegas wannabe cash game report from the
> Venetian. Session starts at midnight on a Sunday night, and I sit
> down as the 8th player at an open table. On first impression, half
> the table appears to be tourist d0nks and the other half look like
> they know what they're doing. No stacks over 400, only one stack
> above 300. Since buy in at Venetian is 100-300, no one appears to
> have enough chips to bully the table around. Everyone is quiet and
> passive (yummy), so I play my default Vegas style of tight
> aggressive with huge emphasis on position.
>
> Off we go, and on my first button, I find AJoff. There is one limper
> so I raise to 15. everyone folds except for UTG limper, who calls.
> Flop comes Kd Qd 10h. Yahtzee! I flopped Broadway. Villain checks, I
> bet 30 and he shoves for 100 total. I insta call, show Broadway, and
> the turn, river get dealt, coming 7, 7, non diamonds, and he flips
> over AK in disgust and walks away. Nice start, 5 min in and I'm up
> 100.
>
> I'm in mid position with AQ off. UTG raises to 17. One call, action
> to me. I raise to 45. Tight passive Lady flat calls. Original raiser
> calls. Flop is red j black j and red 2, no flush draw. Checks to me,
> I bet 70 and take it down.
>
> Limp with 6 2 off on button. Five others. Flop is k q x, 2 clubs.
> Checks around, no one seems to want it, and I fire 10. Lady who
> short bought calls. Turn brings 8 of clubs, completing the flush.
> She checks I bet 20 she flats. She has 45 behind. I put her on a
> slow playing flush or weak K. I think there's equal chance of both.
> River brings a red 10. She checks and I fire it all in, as I'm about
> 50/50 on both sides of my read. She insta calls and show 78c. Stupid
> me.
>
> 57d in cutoff. 4 limpers to me. Me and button flat and blinds
> complete and check. Flop is 3s 4h 8s giving me a gutter. Checks all
> around. Glorious 6c hits on turn giving me current vulnerable nuts.
> Checks to me, I bet 15 BB calls. River brings 10s, getting a spade
> draw there and also the 79. BB checks and I decide to value bet my
> straight for 15 since I think I'm still good. He hems and haws,
> calls, I show, and he mucks, tapping the table.
>
> New asian chick in her 20s (we'll call her Evelyn Ng wannabe) sits
> down at the table. In her first rotation, I get mixed up in a hand
> with her when I limp in SB with A5h and 5 limpers. "Evelyn" is in
> cutoff. Flop is A 7 8 rainbow. I check and everyone checks to her,
> and she bets 10. I flat and turn brings 4x, putting a non heart
> flush draw on board. I check and she bets 10 again. I flat again
> with my top pair and gutter draw. River brings another 7, no flush
> on board. Board is now A 7 8 4 7. She bets 15, I flat, and she turns
> over AK suited (see below for observation notes).
>
> Kjd in cutoff. One limper UTG. I raise to 15. Only SB calls. Flop is
> Kh 9h 3d. SB d0nk bets 25. I raise to 60. He thinks, then flats. He
> has roughly 45 total left behind and I'm pretty sure he's sending it
> in. Turn is 6d, giving me a flush draw now too. He checks, I ship
> it, he calls and an A heart drops. Flop flush draw gets there. But I
> turn over my KJ anyways - and he turns over K10. I win a nice pot of
> about 190.
>
> At this point im up 400. The rest of the night goes smooth sailing,
> I raise pre flop, some callers, c bet, and take the pot. End the
> night up $530 for 2 and a half hours of poker.
>
> Observations:
> 1) 1-2 nl hold em in vegas remains SUPREMELY beatable. Oh how I wish
> there was a bet with Jason about this. I have never felt more
> strongly about anything in my life.
>
> 2) The new line in cash games is to flat call with AK. No matter how
> many callers. I saw this three times In showdowns, where twice, late
> position, 3-5 limpers, the AK would flat. A would hit on flop, AK
> bets or calls, no raising. Amazingly, three times AK held up and won
> a moderate pot (the only time it didn't was my flopped Broadway
> hand). I'm pretty sure seeing it work like this encourages that kind
> of play (and I absolutely love it). Watch out for that if u are
> playing a live casino cash game anywhere.
>
>
>
>
>

Finally got it...

Playing O8, I was dealt AA32ds in late position. It folds to me, I pot it, and take down the blinds at a table that has seen about 90% of flops. Man, I really wanted to be disappointed by a flop with that hand.