Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Epic Hand with Jeh Chow

Few hands are anything but "standard" for the experienced poker players at WNP. I did find this hand one I played against Jeh as one of the most interesting ones I have played to date. Here is my thought process during the hand.

I have AQos and raise to 9 UTG. 3 or 4 callers including Jeh Chow in the small blind. Flop is QQJ with 2 spades. Bingo. Jeh Checks, I check, Marsh checks, can't remember if Martin was in but if so he checks. Next card off suit 2, Jeh and I are both pretty deep stacked about 500+ chips each. Jeh leads out for 15, I raise to 40, Marsh and everyone else step out of the way. Jeh re-raises to 110, I think for a long time. Marsh says out loud Jeh's pocket 2's got there. I think Jeh has a queen, just can't figure if he boated up or not, I then say out loud I really need a 10 of spades. Sometimes I tell the truth and so I think Jeh will slow down on the river if the 10 of spades does hit. A call would possibly be in order from AK suited in spades, the 10 of spades would give AK suited a royal flush. Finally, after agonizing forever, I decide to flat call.

My reasoning is if a Q or a A hit I instacall any bet on the river. If a 10 hits, Jeh likely slows down and I can show down a hand which is likely a winner, but not for sure as Jeh is acting very strong with his betting patterns. If a blank hits, I likely call but will have to just go on instinct. My guess is that if Jeh does have a Q on the river, he will lead out strong with AQ,KQ, any boat Q. If he has a weak Q, my guess is that he will either check call the river or lead out for 50-70 percent of the pot.

River is the 10 of hearts. Jeh leads out for 185 into a pot of about 250ish. What do you do?

19 comments:

Sushi Cowboy said...

Call! Call! He has K8os!

Wow, I had not idea you had that strong a hand but that would explain why you were agonizing so much. I thought you just had an overpair.

Also, if an A or Q hit I hope you are not just instacalling a bet when you could be raising instead.

Austin said...

Call, for sure. At the very least. Think about raising. It is Jeh we're talking about who is capable of making a huge bet with nothing or little to nothing.

royalbacon said...

Yeah, there’s no way I’m laying down that hand.

Flat call.

jtrey333 said...

A couple of things that I have to add to the description of the hand:

- After the offsuit 2 hits on the turn, and I re-raise to 110, there is a LOT of banter going around the table. At one point, Jason asks me whether I have a strong hand, and I replied, "it's a pretty strong hand. I'll show you after the hand."

- At the river, after I bet 180 and Jason contemplates for a minute, Jason confirms with me whether I will show, and I confirm that to be the case. If there was any hand where the banter *might've* had some effect, this was one of them.

My thoughts:

From my end, I was certainly playing it as though I had a Q. I thought I was projecting major strength throughout the hand, and my thought process was pretty simple - I would do the same with any slow-played Q on all actions before the river, and hope to make Jason lay down any non-Q hand. Who would've thought he actually had a Q? So, I started to build my story of *if* I had at least a Q:

- call the bet in the SB pre-flop, - flop comes Q Q J, check all around to slow play and disguise my hand
- turn comes offsuit 2, fire a bet of 15, hope to get raised so I start to "build a pot"
- when Jason raises to 40, raise to 110 so I can keep "building my pot" of trips or better

Now, when Jason raises to 40, I think his range can be anywhere from an overpair, a Jack, or a Queen. He also could have two spades, and/or an open ender, but a raise here can certainly be a test raise to see where he is at in the hand, and also just try to take it away in the case he has air.

My bet of 110 was certainly meant to take it down at that point, as I didn't think he could call unless he had a Q. If he called, my original plan was to play it cautiously going to the river - but keeping in mind that I've now shown some strength, so it was going to be dependent on what came on the river. I certainly didn't expect the call, because Jason took a few minutes to decide, and usually that means he's folding. When he said "I flat", my stomach dropped.

Then the 10 that he asked for actually hit.

This is really the key point of the hand. We all know Jason does a lot of talking and gives true/false assessments of his hand during hands, but this time, I actually thought he was telling the truth (which didn't turn out to be the case). However, it is actually what got me to make my bet into that - knowing that, if I bet EVEN if the 10 hits, it's going to look monsterously strong. (Also, I interpreted the flat call on the turn as a cautious play rather than a trap play.)

I really had no idea that Jason had AQ. I certainly put Jason in a tough position, but if I was in Jason's position, I personally think I'm making the crying call with AQ. And a crying call is what it certainly would've felt like. I would certainly not be happy about it, especially with all of the metagame elements that took place in the hand - the bluff sort of took a life of its own.

jason said...

Definitely the best bluff ever shown in the history of WNP.

What the railbirds fail to see is the amazing strength Jeh shows throughout the hand.

If Jeh is not playing air, the only hand that I can see beating on his river bet is KQ.

I just don't see Jeh leading out so strong on the river with Q-9 or lower. At this point he has to be convinced that I have a Q, an overpair or a very strong draw. The 10 likely completes my draw, if a draw is my hand.

With Q-9 or lower, Jeh, being the good player that he is, will likely either check call hoping I was on spades and bluff or value bet hoping to be called with an overpair. I see the big bet with any boat, KQ, AQ, or a made hand when the 10 hits as I do not know if he is on a draw either. There was just no way I put Jeh on air with all of the strength he was showing.

So we now have a new standard which will be tough to surpass for a shown bluff. The lead out, reraise, followed by a large river bet when the opponent calls for a specific card and it hits. All while both players have meaningful stack sizes.

I doubt any bluff stronger than the one Jeh showed would be long term profitable, but I have been wrong before. Congratulations Jeh on a great play, I was honored to be in the hand with you.

jason said...

If anyone wishes to try to top Jeh's bluff, one additional factor to consider is that Jeh put all his money in drawing dead, making the bluff all the more spectacular.

G said...

for this bluff to be longterm profitable, there needs to be some ability to slow down and put the gears in reverse. otherwise someone might catch you...in this case, a few things allowed Jeh to plow right on through.

1) Jason saying he needed a 10 left room for someone else to have the nuts

2) Contemplating and not smooth calling on the turn

jtrey333 said...

Who is "g"?!

Marshall said...

Jason:

"If anyone wishes to try to top Jeh's bluff, one additional factor to consider is that Jeh put all his money in drawing dead, making the bluff all the more spectacular."

This is retarded. Um he didn't put all his money in at all, and it was on the river so he wasn't drawing at all...

It was a great bluff, but not for the reasons you said, they have no bearing on anything.

Marshall said...

I also think that there is a fair chance that Jeh bets the river with any Q. I don't necessarily agree that he is check/calling with a lower Q there. That board was scary, but also potentially really draw heavy, and you could have been on a flush draw or 9T for an open ender or any number of other draws.

Marshall said...

I guess my question Jason is why didn't you raise the turn again? What were you scared of there mainly? You had an extremely strong hand and were ahead of anything but a made boat. Sure Jeh looks strong, but you were really strong, and he would do that with a lower Q 90% of the time.

jtrey333 said...

I think I make the same bet (180) there with any Q, btw. And making that bet left me with about 220 behind.

And I was honored to be in the hand with you as well Jason - everything surrounding the bluff couldn't have taken place without you :)

jason said...

I guess the one mistake that I made, making the bluff possible, was that by looking weak on the turn, even though I was strong, I neglected to factor in that Jeh would capitalize on me looking weak.

If I had called more quickly, or raised after the reraise which would have ended the hand, Jeh may have slowed down or folded.

But I don't fault myself for calling and calling in the manner I did. I was thinking through every possible situation and what my likely action would be on the river. It did induce a bluff, which is normally profitable, but with Jeh's amazing demonstration of strength and all the factors already sighted, I folded.

If I had taken the hand to the next level of metagame, I could have deduced that Jeh thinks I am weak therefore he will bet any q as well as any air hand so a call is in order.

Maybe someday I will be that good.

Marsh, the comment I made should have said that all the money that Jeh put into the pot, he was drawing dead with. Jeh did not put his stack in, I am well aware of that. But every chip he put into the pot, he had no chance of winning without inducing a fold, making the bluff more spectacular. Many of us can semibluff, then continue on when the semibluff does not materialize. Jeh had no draw whatsoever when the money went in on the turn. I think this made Jeh's bluff more memorable than any of the other bluffs I have seen shown at WNP.

Marshall said...

I still have to disagree. He was not drawing dead by any stretch. What if you were on a superdraw? 9sts or whatever on the turn? He is ahead of at least that portion of your range..

And as far as your play, I think you are thinking in the wrong direction perhaps. You actually needed to go DOWN a notch on the metagame stuff instead of up.

Example.

You are playing online. You raise UTG with AQ, flop comes QQJ, you check slowplaying the flop. Turn comes, some loose guy leads for smallish bet, you raise to 40 he makes it 110, you are probably just shoving at that point. You know Jeh, but even that probably means he is less likely to have a "real hand" than someone like say Martin in that spot.

I think that was the classic, "Well if you have this beat then more power to you and nice hand, I call" scenario.

Marshall said...

Oh and in response to your original question in the original post:

I call.

Sushi Cowboy said...

I definitely think that there is an argument for raise/fold on the Turn. I don't see any reason for a flat call unless you are trapping and planning to call/raise on the end.

I agree with Jason's point about having absolutely no draw. If Jeh had any draw whatsoever on the Turn and was putting chips in on a semi then I don't think the bluff is anywhere near as audacious.

jtrey333 said...

after Jason called the 110 I certainly *assumed* I was drawing dead.

jason said...

On line correct, instacall. The head game, live play, perhaps the greatest laydown ever, were factors. Without the metagame, just doing math and looking at the player, its a call.

U were there, I showed u my hand and you agreed it was a tough spot. On line there is no deep thought, just instinct and math. The metagame is what made it a great hand even though my result was not optimal.

That's why live poker can be so much more interesting. On line that's a yawn hand, but at WNP it was exciting.

Ryan said...

I started a reply when this post first went up that basically said, "Jeh is showing a ton of strength here, but I make the crying call."

I know I'm only beating a bluff and a worse non-boat queen, but Jeh is on exactly those things enough of the time here that I have to roll my eyes and put my chips in. The "bad queen" is possible simply because of Jeh's preflop position, where he is one player away (who was the BB?) from getting a big multiway flop. Jeh's range is awfully wide for a call in that spot.

Finally, I do admire Jeh's willingness to tell the story he set up all the way through, but this is hardly the first time there has been a "betting with air on multiple streets to project strength, including the river when betting is the only way to win" play.

Jason you are prone to myopic hyperbole, where the most recent example of something is the greatest example of that thing evar.

I can think of several instances where this kind of bluff has been perpetrated at WNP...by me, against me, and in front of me. I can also think of several instances where attempts at this kind of bluff have been snapped off.

A great hand and a great, ballsy bluff that was all about selling a story, but singling it out as "best WNP bluff evar" seems...well...myopic and hyperbolic.