Wednesday, March 26, 2008

7c4c in BB ftw?

Jeh and I had an interesting discussion today. I am curious how you guys would vote on this.

Last night Jason, Jeh and I had an intriguing hand, where Jason played 7c4c from the big blind. The hand itself was really cool, and deserves it's own post, but I will concentrate on the discussion that it spawned here instead.

Jeh and I were going over the hand, and I realized that one mistake made in the hand by Jason (not picking on him, I don't have a problem with how he played it) was that he flat called a standard raise, out of position with 74s. It didn't occur to me until later that this may have been a key point in the hand. I asked Jeh what he thought, and he said he is calling there 10/10 times. I said that you would lose a lot of money doing that, and posed this situation to him.

It is WNP. But things are a big different. Every single time you are in the big blind, you pick up 7c4c. Every time, for an indeterminate amount of times, but spanning several sessions. The rule here is that you will most likely limp, or call a standard raise from anywhere from one player to a family pot. You will fold if it has been 3bet ahead of you. My question is, are you going to show a profit here over a long period of time? How would you handle this situation?

Sub-question: Does this exercise show us anything or is it irrelevant?

I started out the exercise as you are on the BB permanently, and always pick up 7c4c, but the other players play how they normally would and don't notice that you have the same hand every time. But the above example is a bit easier to get your head around, and incorporates a few other factors, so we go with that.

My contention is that you would get destroyed, losing lots of money, but I want to know what you guys think. Or even if the exercise has merit as a learning tool.


royalbacon said...

Earlier when we talked, Marsh, I responded to you saying that I would definitely call there as well. With a little bit of reflection, I'm going to change my tune.

I'm much more likely to call a raise pf in the BB with 56s or 57s (like most low, suited, connected or 1-gappers), but calling a raise of 7 with 37s is a stretch. You're right, it's a mistake. I honestly don't think I'd be calling that raise there 95% of the time. If I have a big stack in front of me, I might be more willing to gamble with it.

Really, the only low 2-gapper I'll call to a raise (or turn around and re-raise) is 36s, “my” hand. But that still rules out 37s, since it’s a 3-gapper. It’s a losing proposition.

But in the same turn, I would totally expect Jeh and Jason to be calling with that in that position, based on what I assume about their play.

Ryan said...

It is never incorrect to fold junk. And 74s is junk.

If you choose that path of play...well, you get extremely swingy results with many tough decisions. Just ask Jeh.

On the one hand, if you flop a sneaky hand against a big pocket pair, you may stack them.

On the other hand, you will mostly miss badly and have to give up your extra five chips.

Stack depth becomes a big factor, here, as does whose preflop raise you are calling.

A big part of how successful the junker style is going to be for anyone is how well they can read the situation post flop and take down some pots with the worst of it.

jason said...


Correction there, it is 7,4 suited, not 7,3 which is typically on the unplayable list.

Marsh, you are correct this is a losing proposition over time. You might be OK playing this hand mega deep stacked for surprise value to a raise of 7 but yes it should be tossed.

There are way more factors that I use though playing WNP. Who is the original raiser, it is Jeh, the absolute master of the suckout with pure garbage. This is like playing a Ryan killer hand, normally I am not playing it but against certain players I am more than willing to take a negative EV proposition for the suckout value or possible tilt factor (though Jeh does not seem to easily go on tilt).

So against Jeh, the original raiser I am rarely folding here. And my play would have worked had you not flopped a monster and I could have shown Jeh my winning garbage.

WNP for me is about having fun, telling stories, learning new tricks, quality time with the guys, driving Marsh's car, and if I win some money, that's great too.

You are correct sir, it is a negative EV proposition but you did not enter into the mindset of Jasonland.

jtrey333 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
jtrey333 said...

Marsh and I did touch briefly on this as well - would I play 4c7c against a table full of TAG players from the BB? The answer is definitely no. I wouldn't play that against 7 other Ryan/Marshall duplicates because it is going to be extremely tough every single time to play it, with those opponents.

But at WNP, I would play the hand (as it went) for 5 more pretty much everytime. Knowing who I'm playing against, and being able to assess the situation makes that hand playable for me, and more importantly, challenging and fun. However, this does NOT make it a winning proposition, and I would bet it's lost me some money over time. But I'm ok with that, because I do it for the learning, fun, and challenge.

In short, I'd play it 10 times out of 10 at WNP (in the given situation). And if I was in Vegas, I'd estimate that I'd play it 2 times out of 10, if my assessment of the table was Loose/Passive. And finally, I agree with a lot of what Jason says about WNP. I gladly am the action guy because, well, I think it makes my overall poker game better, and I have fun doing so.

(and by the way, for the record, I had pocket 9s on the hand.)

Sushi Cowboy said...

Everyone should have room on their "fold" list for 7c4c. In general, the long term expectation is pretty miserable.

When could this hand going to be played to a raise? a) Deep stacked play when there is enough potential stacking potential to justify calling against the odds. b) LAGgy play where it is possible to elicit folds without having a hand though being in position obviously helps here. c) When you have the skillz to nut every flop like Jeh regardless of cards.

That is a horrible hand for me since I am not going to be happy with it even if I flop a Flush unless I either had the SF or an OESFD to go along with it.

Overall though, I think that if anyone can make that hand work, it's Jason. He can make enough big play steals with that hand to compensate for the steady drain of chips that he will bleed off calling with that crappy hand out of position.

However, as I said last night I think he picked a very poor time to try to make a move. The flop had a bet and a meaningful raise ahead of him. He was drawing to the weak side of the Straight. He only had the Straight draw with no Flush to accompany it. He does not have fold equity against Marsh unless Marsh is completely on air. Any hand or reasonable semi is going to be fairly priced in as it would be getting 2:1 on a call.

So Jason has a lot of work to do to get 7c4c to show a net profit since he is almost a buy-in deep on the hand. But Jason can turn this into his steal hand now and 7c4c will move into history as he turns this into his cash cow hand.

jtrey333 said...

7c4c can now be deemed the "Jason". Good call Martin!

Marshall said...

I think we should call it the Gillty.