Last night at TuNP, Jeh, Brant, and I are in a pot together. Flop comes something like 7s9s and an os Jack maybe? Jeh, surprisingly, bets at it. Brant calls. I have As2s and call as well. Turn puts a third Spade on the board (Ts?). I think it checks around. I forget the river too but I think it was a blank. Bottom line is that there are only two possible hands that beat me, the true SpainR and 6s8s. It checks to me in position. And I throw out a value bet of 35, Jeh calls, Brant now shoves for 70-something.
Now I'm stuck. I'm as positive as I can be that Brant has a SF. If it were heads up I can make a Hero laydown or an announced crying call but with Jeh behind me I now have to figure out what to do. Jeh would not have flat called behind me with a SF so I know I have him beat. I also am pretty sure that Jeh will not call a re-raise over what Brant bet because a lead-out/re-raise by me would just be too strong for Jeh to call. I hem and haw partly to figure out how I could possibly make money with a side pot and partly to Hollywood a little just in case I'm good so I can collect more chips. In the end I really make what is probably the worst choice possible of a flat call. I could fold and save 35 chips. I could raise and hope Jeh comes along so I can win some side pot money and if he folds I am out the same amount of chips plus I cheat Brant out of another 35 chips that he would have gotten from Jeh just to spite him for check raising me with the nuts. (Just kidding ya, Brant!) I cannot even make a speech about how my read that I'm behind is accurate because Jeh is left to act behind me.
I believe that Jeh had a straight. So what is the proper line on this? What would you do in Brant's shoes? Personally I think the check/raise was sub-optimal even though it maximized his return in this case, mostly because he was short stacked. Since I had the NF I know he is not c/r'ing me with anything that I'm beating. Brant's other options would be to lead out for about half his stack or shove. What would be the ideal play if you had the SF and a full buy-in behind you? Tough to play it out of position.
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9 comments:
Brant probably should have bet the turn, and if not then, then he just has to value bet the river I think. With only Martin behind, you have to put something in there.
Your position is just what it is. You have to raise there. But Jeh can't have much, you just have to pray he has the K high flush and wants to get more money in there. Even if he did he might lay it down there. You are never folding there, period. You can talk all you want about reads and how you "knew" he had the straight flush, but you aren't folding a nut flush there ever.
Nope. Not for two rows of chips. I'm paying that off every time.
That is a shitty spot though for sure. Jeh can't realistically have enough to call a raise with. Even if you Brant shows you his hand, you just have to raise and try hard to sell that Jeh's K or Q high flush is good.
Now the true shitter would have been if Jeh had the SF, and short stacked Brant decided to just jam in in there with some random flush, and you jammed hoping to get Jeh to call for a split pot. Now THAT would suck ass.
Tho I would never just flat call Martin-on-the-button's bet and hope somehow that Brant would jam... :P
Something interesting to consider that I think you all have mentioned but nobody has really addressed is: have any of you seen a hand where THREE people have made flushes with only 3 of that suit on the board? Meaning, there are 9 cards of that particular suit in play at the end of the hand? I don't think I've ever seen that.
But it also doesn't sound like what happened, either. Jeh, you didn’t have a flush, right?
Anyway, in Brant’s position there I am certainly NOT checking in the hopes that Martin makes a bet. But I also know Martin well enough to know he’s only making a bet on the button there if he’s got the perceived nuts (straight-flushes aside), so in that case, I’m definitely making a value bet to induce a call.
My question is, with Brant’s stack, do I go all-in or do I only bet half my stack? Being short-stacked, I think I’m going all-in there with the SF.
@Royal
Yes. (See second paragraph). 9 Spades accounted for...on the FLOP!
I had a mere straight in this spot. No spades in my hand, lol.
And I would definitely bet bet bet. Relying on Martin (and only Martin) to bet for you on the river is going to be waaaaaaay negative EV in the long run. And against a random opponent, the easy answer is bet.
But I fully agree with Marsh that the turn is where Brant missed the bet. If someone has an As or Ks, you want them to pay a bit for a draw to a good hand. And if they have one of those and a pair, they'll probably help build the pot on the turn, which is what you want to do with a SF.
This is completely unrelated to the topic at hand... but, I don't have any of your e-mail addresses.
So... Joe and I would LOVE if you all came to our housewarming party disguised as a Bacon and Rock Band party tomorrow night. E-mail me or Joe for information.
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