Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Runner Runner Perfect Perfect

I thought it would never happen but I hit quads on line with 2 perfect cards, my only outs. Martin commented last night that good players don't give bad beats but it can happen under the right circumstances. Here, the stakes are low relative to my cake roll, I have a good hand post flop, which I think might be good, and I am up against a short stack. I am also running good on this session so my confidence is high. I think I have played well over 100,000 hands on line and this is the first runner runner perfect perfect I can remember.

Running Quads

I can't remember the exact details of Ryan's greatest suckout ever at .02/.04 NL Hold'em, but this one has to rival it.


gmartini said...
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Sushi Cowboy said...

Classic "underfull" trap hand scenario which was already discussed here. You are likely no better than a coin flip and possibly already drawing razor thin, albeit with Jason outs!

jason said...

My read though is that villain has a Jack. I mean 3 of the 4's are already accounted for. So if all he has is a Jack he has 10 outs so I am the favorite. It is remotely possible though unlikely that he has just a flush draw. Then he is drawing dead. I am only way behind if he flopped perfect, which he did. Plus the short stack he has makes me more willing to gamble.

Sushi Cowboy said...

As it stands you were less than 1% as you know. But if you change his 4c to a 5c so he only has trip Jacks that will make you only a 52% favorite. If you are getting action from two different players you are almost certainly in even worse shape. Rule of thumb says outs on the flop times 4 but that doesn't seem to apply here for some reason...I'll looking into that.

I think it's similar to being over aggressive with pocket Twos pre-flop, you are at best a coin flip and at worst way behind. Granted, in this case you're not going to fold since his stack is so short; nevertheless, you are still in the same trap hand scenario. Going to the mat with the underfull has when you can put someone on at least trips sure seems to be an EV- play regardless of how this hand turned out.

jason said...

Agreed, short stack equals call, big stack equals fold. Going to the mat with an underboat against a big check raise is a recipe for disaster.

Hitting a perfect perfect was definitely a treat, way better than the meager one outer on the river I hit against Joe Sola.

Sushi Cowboy said...

Jason, I think it is only appropriate that you accomplished the feat which would be considered the *ultimate* in "Jason Outs"!

I was trying to figure out from the 100,000+ hands you've played how many of them you've been in where you were in such bad shape to require RRPP to win and I think the remarkable thing is that you even got in that position in the first place. I *think* RRPP requires that you are up against at least a Boat and drawing to Quads or a Straight Flush to win. I also think this is going to be a lot easier to see the river in this situation in Omaha or O/8 than in Hold'em. Still if you catch RRPP successfully like in this hand that's a 1 in 820 shot or on average after 410 trials. And I seriously doubt you'd be in that situation that many times even though that is less than .5% of your hands. So you are likely well ahead of pace on RRPP. Careful, next time he might have Quad Jacks and even catching RRPP won't help!