Monday, August 13, 2007

Calling off your stack with AKo pre-flop?

This hand is from last WNP, but I think it deserves a little attention.

You are Marsh, ultra-tight super nit supreme. You have the image of a rock, and you will only call value bets on the river with the stone cold nuts, "just in case"...

Ok fine, you are Marsh and you have raised 19 consecutive pots (All with AK or better naturally).

Jason makes a raise to 7 in EP. Action folds to you and you make it 20 to go with AKo. Martin is to your left and smooth calls (shocking).

Now action is back on Jason and he ships for 260. (!?!)

Whatcha gonna do?

This play absolutely baffled me. I had such a hard time narrowing Jason's range here. It seemed silly to make this play with any hand, so I broke it down one by one and tried to figure what he could have. I got to verbalize most of this to Joe as we walked (hand in hand) to Subway. Some of our thoughts:

AA: He could be just getting way frisky with AA, knowing it would be really hard to put him on it. He obviously loses some value here, but mixing it up is good.

AK: Hard to put him on this hand since I have it, but it really makes the most sense. This was my final answer after all the thinking. (and after the hand was over) He has a drawing hand and wants to get as much FE as possible out of it.

KK,QQ: These make some sense also. If he shoves with KK-QQ, he could get AK/AQ to fold, but he also chases away QQ-JJ-1010. Since there were 2 players after him, he is pretty much guaranteed isolation if anyone calls at all.

Air: This is a good option and it makes a lot of sense here, cause he has so much FE, and probably won't be sharing if for some reason he gets called.

In the end I folded pre-flop. I basically had no idea at the time where I was, and I know that Jason is crafty enough to make this play with AA or KK. I had 20 invested but needed to call 260 more to get in this pot. I would much rather shove and get called here. Also, and this was the tipping point, Martin was lurking behind me. This meant 2 things to me: 1) He might be sitting on AA or some monster and 2) We could certainly be sharing a card (namely the Ace).

Thoughts, comments, opinions?


Bob Loblaw said...

I don’t recall Jason letting us know what his hand was. Does he ever? That said, I'd put him on a lower pocket pair than AA. Jason’s not one to push pre-flop with AA — Marsh, Chuck, Martin and Matt would all have to have gone all-in for him to push pre-flop with AA (FIVE-way all-in! Yeah!). So I’m guessing JJ or QQ.

Marshall said...

So with that knowledge, would you have called or folded?

Ryan said...

I had Jason at about a 90% chance of AK and a 10% chance of AA, and a 0% chance of air or a worse pair (OK, maybe like a 1% chance of KK). I mean, Marsh did reraise him. Jason is not going to bluff into someone who has shown preflop reraise strength, even if its an aggressive player like Marshall.

It's possible that he had AA and hoped Marsh's hand was truly preflop-reraise strong, i.e., enough to call. Risky but interesting. Given Marsh's range, what percent of the time is he going to call there? Enough to make it more profitable than raising to 60, getting a call, and playing out a flop? I don't think so, but you gotta toss in your share of curveballs, so I don't hate the move with AA.

AK seemed like the most reasonable hand to put Jason on. He has a ton of fold equity, and is at worst a coin flip against QQ or lower. It's a very dangerous play, though. KK/AA vs. AK does happen! Jason could have been over-raising with a "coin flip" into AA or KK, so it was a dangerous play if it was AK.

Of course, I've made the same move against the same player with AK, although my reraise all in against Marsh's obvious strength was only a few times more than the current bet, not 15x or whatever.

I don't think I call in Marsh's shoes, though. Chopping Martin's 20 90% of the time and likely losing my entire stack 10% of the time doesn't thrill me.

Bob Loblaw said...

You know me, I can always be scared off of a draw with a big bet. I’d have folded in a heartbeat.

But, if a) I played like Marshall and knew that Jason could have no idea that I have AK because I've been putting 20 into the pot every single hand that I've straddled, and b) could forget that 260 chips is quite a bit of money ($75), since Jason has JJ or QQ, I’m basically in a coin-flip situation, so yeah, I’m calling.

Bob Loblaw said...

Oh, duh. I forgot that Marsh had re-raised, and it wasn't just Jason trying to steal Marsh's straddle. FOLD.

Sushi Cowboy said...

I discussed this with Jason afterwards. Actually I was in the hand also even though it seemed to be a Jason v. Marshall showdown. I told Jason that it was a risky move since just a couple weeks earlier I smooth called Tom's bet of 20 with AA. Jason said that he didn't remember that. I told him that he was in the hand to see the flop also. Jason is an action junkie so he's going to pull stuff like this which is fine. That's Jason. I don't know if he was aware that it was a squeeze play opportunity or even if he noticed that it was still three handed. The squeeze play works under certain circumstances but I think the over-push maneuver is better executed against a single player or at least against players that you have a good book on. Steven also smooth called a raise with AA last Wednesday so feel free to keep doing the massive overbets. They always work...until the last time.

Sushi Cowboy said...

Oh, and did I say gap concept yet? I'm with Ryan, calling off your entire stack in hopes of getting it back if you both have AK is really not a great option. And just in case he actually does have AA you could be flushing a bunch of chips into the sewage system of Gettingitinbadsville.

jason said...

So many great guesses, one of you is surely right. I did let Martin and Marsh know what I had as I said at the table that they each paid 20 chips, they have a right to know. This analysis is fascinating and mostly spot on.

I am surprised no one commented about all of the table talk banter between Marsh and I. I did state that my objective for the night was to resteal a steal of Marsh's. Everyone knows I raise with junk and most have figured that Marsh steals my raises preflop with junk from his straddle. So I figured all of this banter would make my hand even more difficult to discern. I guess no one really pays attention to my banter.

In any case, I will say I did not have air. I plan to make a move with air and will likely do so in the future. But 13 stacks with air is a bit pricey for me.

Bob Loblaw said...

Man. Jason can put me on tilt just sitting here reading this damn blog.

Ryan said...

Announcing the upcoming book, Rick Steves' Jasonland 2008

In this indispensable travel guide, learn how to navigate your way through the strange and often troubling world of Jasonland for less than a dollar an orbit! Contents include:

Jasonland-to-English phrase translation, including popular phrases like...
* Spaniard = spainR
* 40 is good = I fold
* 40 is good = I call
* 40 is good = I raise
* 40 is good = I'm all in
* 40 is good = Is it on me?
* 40 is good = I like turtles
* I'll let you have this one = I am soooo beat

Up-to-date exchange rates
* 6 Marshalls to a Ryan
* 4 Ryans to a Royal
* 5 Royals to an MB
* Ryan's BB = 30
* Marshall's BB = 20

Local customs and etiquette explained
* Betting in multiples of three
* Storing your plaques in back
* Stacking bets one chip at a time
* Separating blind trophies from your main stack
* Responding to a bet announcement by repeating it in the form of an incredulous question
* Going into the tank: remember the five-minute minimum
* Measuring out calls next to existing bets and leaving them there to confuse others
* Shuffling in Jasonland: always expose the bottom card to the table
* The floor: the ideal place for card storage
* After a hand, never show your own cards, but name hands at random and ask if your opponents had any of them beat
* Wherever you are, act like it's the first time you've ever been there; it makes others feel needed
* The six unplayable hands revealed

The Jasonland justice system explained
* Know before you visit how much you have to bet and lose before you are entitled to know what a folded hand is
* Know when you are obligated to see a flop based on who is still in the hand
* Detailed lists of everything honorable, from losing with quads to defending your straddle
* Up-to-date records of the worst fold ever and the worst call ever
* Hindsight and results: the ultimate judge of everything

Praise for "Rick Steves' Jasonland 2008"

"Steves somehow makes sense of the most challenging and fascinating journey a traveler can undertake. Marvelous."
-The New York Times Book Review

"Absolutely required reading for anyone even thinking of adventuring in Jasonland."
-Entertainment Weekly

"Be sure to buy the latest volume, as customs in Jasonland change often."
-Rick Steves

Ryan said...

Let's be clear that I wouldn't put that much work into a post about someone I didn't like. ;)

Marshall said...

LOL OMFG I am crying in my cube after reading that gem HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH.

This is the best post in the history of TNP PERIOD. LOLLLLLLLL

And if we didn't all love Jason, it wouldn't be funny at all. But since we do, it COMEDY GOLD.

Marshall said...

still laughing

jason said...

Even I laughed hysterically so my vote is right there with you all. Let's put Ryan's comment into the all time classics or hall of claim category for TNP posts.

Sushi Cowboy said...

Excellent guide. After reading the guide, you wonder if it all can be true and are left saying to yourself "you've got to be kidding me" but it is indeed all true. A mandatory primer for any new player. Read this guide or you will be "thoroughly confused"!

embeesea said...

Hello TNP Warriors,
Ryan, I believe that you missed your calling. You should be a stand up comic. What a HILARIOUS description of Jason. Imagine how boring your games would be without him. Thanks for such a great laugh!

Bob Loblaw said...

Fucking hilarious. Best thing to read first thing in the morning. Thanks Ryan.