This hand is from last WNP, but I think it deserves a little attention.
You are Marsh, ultra-tight super nit supreme. You have the image of a rock, and you will only call value bets on the river with the stone cold nuts, "just in case"...
Ok fine, you are Marsh and you have raised 19 consecutive pots (All with AK or better naturally).
Jason makes a raise to 7 in EP. Action folds to you and you make it 20 to go with AKo. Martin is to your left and smooth calls (shocking).
Now action is back on Jason and he ships for 260. (!?!)
Whatcha gonna do?
This play absolutely baffled me. I had such a hard time narrowing Jason's range here. It seemed silly to make this play with any hand, so I broke it down one by one and tried to figure what he could have. I got to verbalize most of this to Joe as we walked (hand in hand) to Subway. Some of our thoughts:
AA: He could be just getting way frisky with AA, knowing it would be really hard to put him on it. He obviously loses some value here, but mixing it up is good.
AK: Hard to put him on this hand since I have it, but it really makes the most sense. This was my final answer after all the thinking. (and after the hand was over) He has a drawing hand and wants to get as much FE as possible out of it.
KK,QQ: These make some sense also. If he shoves with KK-QQ, he could get AK/AQ to fold, but he also chases away QQ-JJ-1010. Since there were 2 players after him, he is pretty much guaranteed isolation if anyone calls at all.
Air: This is a good option and it makes a lot of sense here, cause he has so much FE, and probably won't be sharing if for some reason he gets called.
In the end I folded pre-flop. I basically had no idea at the time where I was, and I know that Jason is crafty enough to make this play with AA or KK. I had 20 invested but needed to call 260 more to get in this pot. I would much rather shove and get called here. Also, and this was the tipping point, Martin was lurking behind me. This meant 2 things to me: 1) He might be sitting on AA or some monster and 2) We could certainly be sharing a card (namely the Ace).
Thoughts, comments, opinions?