Monday, January 21, 2008

Hand of Ryan's

Those of us that regularly read Decisions Not Results will have seen this hand before, but I wanted to put it out here because I want to know what you guys think.

You are Ryan, at a .05-.10 table, on the button with AcJd. UTG min-raises to .20, UTG +1 calls, and it folds to you and you 3 bet to .85. The SB calls and the original min-raiser calls, UTG +1 folds.

The pot is now 2.85. Three players see a flop of:
Kd Qd 10d.

You started this hand with almost a full stack of 9.55, SB had 24.00, and UTG had 4.88.

SB checks, and UTG makes a stab of .10. Now it's on you. You flat call the .10, slow-playing your flopped nut straight and OESFD.

How would you play this? Would you have raised? If so, why?

Action is now back on SB, who raises to 1.00 straight. UTG now calls the 1.00 in front of you and its back on you. You now 3 bet to 5.00. Good bet? Good size?

Now action is back on SB who min-raises to 9.00. (enough to put you and UTG all in). Yikes. UTG now calls off his last 3.03 in front of you and action is back on you. It's 3.70 more to call. Do you call? Could you really fold here? Should you?

This is a really interesting hand to me because the flop is a total MONSTER for us, but it seems pretty obvious that we are behind at least one of our opponents by the time the final action gets back to us. If both players are either unknown or at least non-maniacs, can we make a case for folding here? If we have determined that we have literally only 2 outs, probably we can fold. But if our J high flush would be good, then we can't right?

Pretty hilarious, I ran the numbers against the exact hands his opponent had, and it's damn scary.


Marshall said...

Oh and just to get the comments rolling, I think Ryan is an uberdonk and should have just folded to the .10 on the flop. Make your mind up early man, know when you are clearly beaten, jeez.

jsola said...

Preflop's good...

On the flop that guy just bet 3% of the pot, I'm raising his ass on principle. No reason to call here, you're letting the nut flush draw / flopped two pair / set get there and he didn't bet enough money to make me feel like I'm getting my slow-playing money's worth.

But let's see, as played, you have a dude minbetting out, you call, another guy makes a weak little raise, original minbettor calls, you put out a HUGE re-raise, the check-raiser manages to pull off the fabled check-raise-re-min-raise maneuver, and you have to call off $3.70 to win a pot of something like $20. That's such ridiculous action but I just can't fold. You're ahead of two pair and have the second nut flush redraw in case someone flopped a baby flush.

You're completely fucked by the nut flush, which someone almost certainly has, but that's such a tiny amount to call I can't find a fold. If he's semi bluffing even some tiny percentage then you're getting odds.

Personally I would have raised his flop bet to like $2.70, at which point I'm guessing SB is either going to minraise me or push. UTG's getting it in because he's a donk so I don't really care too much about him.

If SB pushes, I probably still call because it's a drawy board, it could have hit his range in a way that I'm ahead of, and I have BROADWAY god damnit.

Ryan said...

Well, if I had actually been playing the hand I *had* instead of the hand I thought I had (i.e., not the nuts instead of the nuts), I would have raised the flop bet to find out where I stood. Then I would have faced a raise and a call.

At that point, it would have been super tough. I mean, with the villain's check-raise, I have to assume a flush. I have to accept that my straight is worthless, and that I'm drawing to 7 outs at best, only one of which is clean, and I can probably get away from it.

If Mr. Two Pair calls the check raise in that scenario, it might make it harder to fold to all that extra money...

jason said...

Agree with Sola and Ryan, raising the weak flop bet defines your hand much better.

Folding to the check raise, re raise maneuver would have been extremely difficult but heroic. This move seems even stronger than the lead out, reraise play. With unknown donks you really can't fold there but if I were playing against good TAG players, a case could be made for an extremely heroic laydown.

Sushi Cowboy said...

Not just an OESFD but a OERSFD!

Ummm...reminds me of another hand that we've already dissected.

I'm going to make a substantial claim to the pot on the flop and if I don't take it down with that then I'm going to try to see a showdown as cheaply as possible while going (Royal) Straight Flush mining.

Sushi Cowboy said...

Correction. I guess that is only a single sided RSFD so essentially a GSRSFD, not an OERSFD. My bad.

sstadnicki said...

One other minor but relevant point on this one -- by the time the action gets back to you, you'd better know that you don't actually have the OESFD; someone out there has the Ad and it's not you. I like a fold here -- it's hard to believe that you aren't drawing to a one-outer.