Last orbit of WNP (Tuesday edition). Dave raises to somewhere around 20(?), Ryan re-raises to 60. Dave makes a mini-speech about being tired enough to call. Definitely the feel of pair over pair pre-flop with Dave going set mining. I think Dave shoves with AK here and takes his chances seeing all five cards. I also think KK or AA is a Degree all-in moment. Flop comes out Jc 7c and off-suit rag. Dave shoves in the last of his stack which was a plaque and spare change. Do you HAVE to call with an overpair to the board here? Clearly there are no odds to catch a two outer if you are in fact behind a flopped set. I think Dave's range of hands that he could be shoving with would include set mine misses like TT. I can give Dave credit for shoving with a set as he has done before when was deeper stacked than he was in this case. I've also seen Dave shove with relatively nothing especially if is he first to stab. In this case, with a Jack high board, Dave should also realize that Ryan likely has an overpair and it will be very difficult for him to get away from that hand when it only costs him another hundred+ chips into an already 120 chip pot so he is almost certainly going to be looked up rendering a bluff to be somewhat pointless.
It's late in the session, there is a tendency for players to either double up or bust out. Dave has just pushed in for less than the pot. You have an overpair to the board and at least two clean outs. What is the analysis here?
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My answer: I don't see how I can lay this down, especially not for a less than pot size bet. I have already excluded KK and AA from his range. That leaves QQ on down to ??. If we go all the way down to ducks then KK is about 3:1 against that range on that board and it pretty much stays about there even tightening up to QQ-TT. Considering how late it is (and thus how d0nk-ish a play to expect), the odds of a Hail Mary bluff, the size of the pot and how much it is to call, I think I have to pay it off.
Dave shows 77, Ryan's Kings don't improve and Dave doubles up.
"What is his range, and what percentage of it am I beating?"
Again, always the question, and very tough to answer in this case. Dave makes some...creative moves sometimes, which is ultimately what compelled me to call. I also thought QQ was a distinct possibility, and the "specific flop" he was calling for was one without an A or K ffor fear of AK. He also could have done the whole thing where his plan is to try to hit a set or get away, but then he pushes anyway when he misses.
Still, I had a very strong feeling that he was only pushing if he hit a flop that was beating me, but I called anyway. It was an understandable call, and it would have been a great laydown if I'd made it, but it was definitely possible to make.
Even if you constrain Dave's range down to just Queens or Jacks, you are 2:1 to win and are priced in to a call. The feel of the hand felt like Dave hit, not in the way that I think everyone expected but he did hit. We can criticize Dave for not having the implied odds to call after he committed more than a third of his stack to go set mining; nonetheless, he gambled and got paid in full.
Martin, I think you're making a mistake by doing things like tightening Dave's range to 'Queens or Jacks'. This isn't just a pre-flop question; it's also a matter of post-flop information: how good does Dave have to be to push there? I think you're right about his range including barely-underpairs (tens and maybe nines), but if he's got anything lower than that that didn't hit, then he's not shoving here. And if you believe the 'tired enough to call' speech, you can probably eliminate QQ and maybe even JJ from his range; this means that his plausible hands at this point are TT, *maybe* 99, and the pairs that setted up on the flop. Interestingly, if you put his range at sevens, tens and the specific rag, then you're still close to even money; but even so, I think this is probably a fold based on basic knowledge of Dave's habits (i.e., everyone at the table knows he's set-mining there and can put him on a non-premium pocket pair) and a read of the situation. I actually think Ryan's strong feeling about Dave only pushing if he hits is the most relevant piece of information in this hand; you can't rely on tells for everything, of course, but this is a perfect example of the kind of situation where listening to them is a good idea.
SHIP. IT.
Using some back of the envelope maths, I think you need to be ahead about 28% of the time for this to be a profitable call.
Will Dave make a weird play more than a quarter of the time here? There was a time when this would have been a snapcall, but he's gotten a lot better lately so who knows. Seems like you're right on the EV neutral edge, so call if you feel like gambling I guess.
Steve, what I meant by suggesting that you narrow the range down to QQ or JJ was that even if it were that narrow, you are priced in. Expanding the range only makes it more correct to call in case you think that he is bluffing. I don't know how many of us would be able to lay down Kings in that exact situation (overpair to the board, 100+ more to call with 220+ in the pot and Dave shoving on one of the last hands of the night).
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