Let's say you pick up JJ92 rainbow in the BB at a full O/8 table and you are satisfied to just get a free hand with those cards. Two limpers, the SB, and you all see the Flop which comes out AAJ rainbow. You have Jacks full of Aces and lead out for a half pot sized bet. There is a fold and then one of the limpers pots it. SB folds and it's back to you. So now you need to figure out what to do. You could be drawing dead to AJ or currently crushing Ax. However, assuming that they are just getting frisky with trip Aces, you would still need to fade three different ranks of cards assuming that they do not have any matching ranks in their hand as well as the Turn and River pairing, all of which would give your opponent Aces full.
How do you play this hand?
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7 comments:
Martin:
There are few people who will limp with Aces in O8. I will occassionally if I am say UTG and have junk with it like 6,7 os.
It also depends on table dynamics and stack sizes. Some tables everyone limps preflop, then you need to be careful. If you are both deep stacked, a call or raise back may be appropriate. If one of you are short stacked then I would just go to the felt. You are most likely against Axxx so you do have to dodge 9 outs but you are still pretty far ahead,
I play pretty aggressively so I would likely go to the felt. I would not fold here on a limped pot. Quads will likely smooth call you here. I like the shove but a call or min raise back would be appropriate with both deep stacked.
It sure feels like trip aces with a good kicker thinking he is raising trip aces with a worse kicker. AJ is possible, sure, but not likely enough to fold.
With only a runner-runner low draw, I would assume that I'm dodging nine cards for the scoop, and I'd repot and get it in there ASAP.
Jason are you talking about raising with a pair of Aces or just any Ace? Would someone with AQ87 rainbow really raise pre-?
I guess best reasonable case scenario is that they have AXXY so they are taking one of their own outs or share cards with you but even if they just have trip Aces it doesn't matter how bad their kicker is Aces full of crap has it all over Jacks full of Aces.
The other thing is that, assuming your opponent has three different ranks which differ from your cards, they actually have ten outs including the fourth Ace. If you factor in the fact that it could be AJ protecting against AQ or AK catching a higher boat, is it really EV+ to press in that situation?
Your equity against any ace is 51.3%, so with all the dead money I think it is EV+ to press it. You have to be pretty certain that your opponent is on AJ not to go to the mat with it.
If you can narrow the range it changes it a bit, but I still like going strong with that hand at microstakes.
I ran it with a slightly tuned version that gives the opponent "ANZZ" which means, Ace, [9-K], [2-6], [2-6].
This was to assume that they are betting a single ace with a good kicker, possible a jack, and a couple low cards to go with the ace that may or may not be paired.
The result was 50.9% equity, so it barely changes it at all.
Unless you really think they wouldn't do this without AJ specifically, I think it's EV+ to go to the felt, but you will lose the hand about half the time.
Yes, I am talking about quads for the villain. AAxx almost always raises preflop. I agree with Ryan, you are likely up against A,xxx, drawing to 10 outs, though you do have one redraw out to quads against a boat of Aces full.
Yeah, I wasn't worried about being up against Quad Aces. But even Axyz has the ten outs plus another half out for runner runner pair.
I was reading a book in the book store today about Omaha and flopping "The Underfull" as the author puts it. With the same flop he says if there is a bet and a raise to you then you should fold. He also says you should fold to a bet and a call since you are already beat or you'd have to dodge up to 18 cards which beat your boat. "The gist of it is that you don't want to play a big pot with the underfull, regardless of the structure of the flop."
The fact that you could be possibly drawing dead, to one out, or under favorable circumstances maybe coin-flippish territory makes me think that this is just a major trap hand.
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