As requested by Jason, here are the current odds for the Sushi Book action on the race to April 1 for Cake Challenge 2: Electric Donkaloo.
Current odds for a 1 "dollar" bet (remember that odds will float up or down as more action is taken and that return will be based on final odds, not the odds when the wager is placed)
Current odds based on confirmed paid wagers:
11:10 Martin
4.3:1 Marshall
7.8:1 Chuck
9.4:1 Adam
17.3:1 Royal
17.3:1 Ryan
30:1 Drew
30:1 Woody
Action voided*: Mike
As of Jan 25 09:20
Action on Mike has been reversed due use of comingled funds and the inability to be able to provide an audit trail for his bankroll.
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14 comments:
Alright, since I lost out on the action at Jason's book, I'm going to put 20$ on Adam here.
The pressure is becoming overwhelming. That's it. Starting Cake II with a $100 SNG. Wish me luck, Drew....
What are the rules Marty? Can we bet on ourselves and other runners? Doesn't this sorta create possibilies for awkward stages later in the running?
I will take 10 bucks on myself either way.
Marsh,
It is highly doubtful that there will be conflicts though it is possible. I am guessing the winner will end up with between $500 and $1000 at the end and the $50 here or there for jury rigging the 1st place finish won't be meaningful.
To insure no conflicts, just make a rule that every player has to go dark on results for the last week of the challenge. That way there they can't say I will just not play, sit on my stack and win.
Marty:
Give me $5 of action on yourself, and $5 on Mike Thomas.
I want to wait to see how the book develops before taking any more significant action.
@Marshall
No restrictions. Anyone (in the Cake Challenge or not) can put money on anyone including themselves. Wagerers can only place money up until January 21st and all odds/payouts will be frozen at that point so there cannot be a rush of money as the April 1 deadline approaches.
Also, if everyone could just email me your action instead of posting here that would be great. Thanks.
I had some questions about Mike's participation.
Is he?
Jason said he is, but does he know all the guidelines, and the wagers and all that?
Is he going to be checking in with anyone other than Jase (blog, post on here, email, whatever?)
We are placing bets but we have literally no idea where he is at with this stuff. Does he play a lot? What games? How many tables? Rakeback? Cake? Does he take stuff like this seriously or is he just messing around?
Also, Mark's wife Mina is going to be doing the challenge. She is approaching it as a learning opportunity (as we all should) and will be checking up on our blogs from time to time.
PSA: update blogs so that people like Mina can learn from our triumphs and mistakes. Sometimes it feels like you are writing to the masses and it's sorta pointless. It's not.
Carry on.
Marsh, good questions about Mike.
Similarly, I'm very interested in being able to track how EVERYONE in the challenge is doing. At present, I'm unaware how anyone (other than Marsh, Royal and myself) are doing.
Seems to me that everyone participating should be posting progress/results regularly. Would it be feasible to create a dedicated blog for Cake Challenge II that contains each player's graphs? Given that I have the capability of embedding my graph in my Eeyore blog, wouldn't it work to additionally link all paticipants' graphs to one centralized location? Not trying to overly OCD this, but I feel rather in the dark about how most are doing. What do you all think?
I think that we have to remember that the main point of the challenge is to learn.
This means that the challenge will be different things to different people. Some people will learn that they hate playing online or don't have the patience for it. That is fine, and they got what they needed out of the challenge.
Most of us are pretty competitive and want to know how we are doing in relation to the others. The fact is that this isn't all that relevant. We all vary in skill level, online experience, tilt control, multitable tolerance, and free time for poker. This means that the actual results from the challenge will take a back seat to what people take *away* from the challenge.
In regards to record keeping and making it available. I have a particular stance on it. I do it so that I can keep an eye on myself and what is working and not, but also for the good of our community.
If my keeping records and posting progress on the blog means that someone else can learn and improve from my mistakes and successes, then I think we are all moving forward with our game.
An example I gave to Adam: What if Adam, who we all consider fairly even tempered, blew through his whole roll in a week on Cake. I have seen worse tilt episodes than blowing through $100.00 online many times. But if we all saw Adam do this, and he posted about it, then we could certainly learn something from that. Perhaps that playing online is mentally tougher than we tough it would be, and that we need to be prepared for controlling our tilt more than we thought. "If Adam tilted off that much I could too."
My point is that there are good reasons to keep records and post them, but it's optional. You don't have to do it. You are expected to keep some form of records however, as we have no other measuring stick. You are encouraged to share your story and results, but if you don't want to, we won't make you.
About the extra site with result graphs on them. I think it would be cool, and easy to set up for anyone with a graph that autoupdates, but it can't be mandatory imo.
You taking perfecta/trifecta bets, Marty?
OK, so I'm hearing some noise about potential conflicts of interest and/or manipulation of effort. For instance if on March 30 Marsh is in the lead over Woody (remember this is purely hypothetical) by a couple bucks and Marsh has a few bucks on Woody at long odds then it could be worth Marsh's while to donk off some chips in order to let Woody win the race to the April 1 deadline.
Personally I'm not too worried about this issue.
* First of all, someone would need to have significant enough money on someone else (which shortens their odds) to forego the money they have on themselves plus the glory of winning.
* Secondly, you can price that in to where you put your money. If you think someone would intentionally tank it at the end for their own gain then perhaps you shouldn't be riding that horse.
* Thirdly, I think it is highly unlikely that enough planets would line up to where a scenario is even possible where someone would be in the position to make material gain by putting it into reverse.
* Fourthly, the strategy would be foiled by one person keeping their results hidden which I am planning to do.
Apart from the usual measure of keeping an eye on significant amounts of suspicious money coming in on a particular horse the usual way that manipulative activities are kept at bay is to make sure that there is way more incentive in winning the event than in risking getting caught running a lot of money on the event in which you are participating. Since no one officially has receipts for wagers place at the Sushi Book yet, I would be open to altering the format so that the winner gets something like 10% of the total take before the rest is distributed. That should ensure that anyone is better off winning at the end than letting someone else win.
Thoughts?
@jsola
No, there will be no parlay bets offered. I do not feel that there would be enough action to generate substantial enough payouts. I don't know how race books do it but I would keep all parlay action separate so there is also the potential of no one picking the correct final combination in which case there would be surplus funds which I am not interested in dealing with.
Comments on Mike:
He has yet to put $100 on a site for the challenge. He plays Bodog now and is considering either Bodog or Cake for the challenge.
Mike has historically been a losing player on line but has recently been successful on bodog playing low stakes and micro stakes PLO. He has also had success in a unique tourney structure of a 10 person sit and go where the top 5 are paid equally. Nit city wins.
He said he would track winnings or losses once he posts his $100.
I don't like the winner taking 10 percent of the profits from the Sushi book. This puts people like Marsh Adam and Martin at an advantage as at least people think they will win. Their chances of getting the 10 percent bonus are at least theoretically better than others.
Bettors like myself who took a lot of long shots want to see 100 percent of the pool paid out without benefit to the top dogs.
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