Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Hand of the night

Since Ryan, Marsh and Jason all missed Tuesday Night Poker this week, I'll recap one of the more interesting hands of the night. Once again it happened on the last orbit of the night, after stacks have gotten nice and juicy. Royal had just busted out previously and was near full strength after a rebuy. He opens for 10(?) and I call in LP as does Jeh in one of the blinds. Flop comes out 234 with two Hearts. Jeh leads out on the flop for 10. Royal, the original raiser, makes it 30. I flat call the 30. Back to Jeh now and he now bumps it up to 100. Royal thinks about it for an while and makes a begrudging fold. Action back around now to me who having previously flat called, now goes deep into the tank. Since it was the last orbit we have already started to rack up chips and Jeh has about three more racks behind after his bump to 100. Martin now picks the number 180 and it's time for Jeh to ponder. He spends some time in the tank then finally makes the call. Turn is Jd. Jeh and I discussed this afterwards and we both knew that was as much of a blank as there could possibly be. Jeh checks to me and I bet 246 which was my best guess as to what Jeh had behind (it was actually 245, close enough). Jeh is repeating to himself Ace-Five, Five-Six. He asks to see a card and that request is politely declined. He finally folds and he is then allowed to turn over a card which ends up being a Deuce.

Royal's overpair of Queens was pulling up the rear in third place. Jeh flopped top two with his 34. Martin had bottom set. The interesting thing was seeing how everyone put the pieces together based on the betting and the history of knowing the other players at the table. Royal made a disciplined and correct fold. I was willing to boat mine on the flop since I was concerned about a possible straight out there which is why I just flat called Royal's bet. But then things got out of what when Jeh raised. And when Royal folded I wasn't sure what he was re-raising with that folds now but the QQ makes sense. When it was 100 to me I decided that I could not flat call because I don't know what a good card or a bad card is for me. If I am behind a straight already then I want to flat call and hope to boat up. As it was, I was behind most of the hands that would be making a re-pop there. both straights and oversets had me in a bad way. I was only beating two pair and since I had three ducks accounted for, almost certainly 34 which means I don't have any boat outs. After Jeh's flat call of my bump and his check on the Turn I felt positive that I was ahead and that futher strengthened my theory that he is on exactly 34. Jeh even mentioned to me that I probably knew his two cards. Anyway, interesting hand and more proof that we play too much poker with each other when we can peg each other so squarely on a hand.


jtrey333 said...

Martin: nice recap of the hand. Glad you beat me to it, as it saved me a lot of typing, haha. I seem to recall the numbers slightly different pre-flop, but not by much. My random comments:

- I can narrow Martin's hand down quite a bit here, because it's so late in the session. It's last orbit, and Martin has about 600 in front of him. I had a little over 400, so we're both playing pretty deep. In these cases, most players will protect their stack this late in the session.

When Martin makes the THIRD raise (10-> 30-> 100-> 180), he has to have a serious hand. Even though the board is draw heavy, he's just NOT going to open the door for another raise if he doesn't have something made. He MUST have a set at the very least, and I thought even that was too weak for what was at stake. That's why I had him on the straight after the third raise, though sets were beating me.

- In my head, I thought I was beat after Martin puts in the third raise. On the way home, I was trying to figure out how correct the call was (80 more to me with about 360 in the pot). Straight up odds, that's 80 more for a total of 440 in the pot=19%. I have four outs, giving me 12% chance to make the turn. Close odds... if I hit, and can extract a bit more, maybe the call is acceptable. I'm undecided as to how happy I am with the call.

I think there's also a possibility that Martin checks behind on the turn, as both of us are apt to do. Of course, he made the shove here after I checked to him, but it's at the very least 25-75 that he exercises a little bit of pot control and checks on the turn. I dunno though, that's just a guess.

One other factor after the hand, Martin did mention that he would've likely folded had I shoved on the turn, and not checked... but he read me pretty well, and knew that I thought I was beat, and made the shove - and when I turned up my cards and folded, that read was validated.

It was a really interesting hand. Better than having a set of 2s counterfeited by Steven. Nice hand Martini!

Sushi Cowboy said...

I must have miscommunicated. What I meant to say was that if Jeh shoved on the flop then I would have had to fold. The 180 was as much as I wanted to commit and was barely over a min-raise. I wanted to put in the third raise to help clarify where I was which it seemed to do since Jeh got the message. If he shoves I have to think he has either a straight or a higher set and is willing to take the chance on boating up. Super draw occurred to me as well but that wasn't my read based on his re-raise to 100 and his hesitance after my bump.

I had considered the possibility that if I bet enough on the flop then I could price myself into chasing boat outs assuming that Jeh had the straight. But I also considered that Jeh has plenty enough gamble in him to shove with top set as well assuming that I was on a straight and willing to chase a boat. Even after putting in the 180 I am still up for the session and content with letting go of the hand. In fact I was trying to play a small pot which was why I just flat called Royal's raise to 30. I had all of my chips racked up except for about four stacks in front of me before the hand and I didn't even like putting in the 30 at that point. Once Jeh makes it 100 I am really in a bind on what to do. Then when Royal *folds* after a re-raise I'm lost as to what that was about.

The blank on the Turn made my job a whole bunch easier. A Trey or Four on the Turn would have been a horrible position for me. Jeh would have the nuts with a Four. If a Trey hit then Jeh is losing to only the cooler-est scenario with all Fours spoken for and three of the Treys so I think he can afford to check the Turn to me and bait me into betting the Turn.

As it was, the blank was a green light to protect my hand as I do not want to see a Heart, Five, Ace, Six, Three, or Four come off on the River. If Jeh has a higher set then I welcome the case Deuce but there are a ton of bad scare cards for me left in the deck. I do not think that Jeh makes the ultra sneaky flat call with the nut straight there since there is too much risk on a mega-coordinated board.