At poker Friday at Jason and MB's there was a hand I said I'd tell Jason about later, so I'll tell you all.
I can't remember the exact preflop action, but there were a lot of players to the flop, and I believe it was unraised. I have A4o on the button.
The flop was 443 rainbow, and I'm hoping for a bet, but it checks around to me. I bet about 8, figuring the other 4 is in the deck somewhere and I'll probably take this down. Jason calls, though, and everyone else folds.
The turn is a 2. I'm mildly concerned about A5, but I don't really think Jason would call my flop bet with that unless he had me squarely on position bet with weak holdings. He checks and I bet again, about half the pot this time, and he calls again.
Now I think it's likely he has something like 77, with a longshot that he's slowplaying a boat or a solid 4 that he got as a big blind special. I think he would have raised with a weak 4 by now to find out where he stands. Ultimately, he's just not betting like he has a 4, he's betting like he feels he's ahead if I don't have a 4 and he's keeping me honest.
The river is a T that makes a backdoor flush, and Jason bets out 31. Interesting...he either does have a boat, or he thinks his middle pair is good.
I check my cards, and see A5 staring back at me. A5? Oops. The bad news is I've misread my hand the whole way, and the good news is it's even better than I thought it was.
I raise to 100, which feels "standard" at 3x. Jason is mumbling about "two small bets and then a big one," trying to puzzle it out, but I remember my bets being in the 35% - 50% pot range, plus the river raise. Jason finally folds.
In retrospect, that bet was too big, "turning my hand into a bluff," as Joe and Andrew would say. He can no longer call with anything losing to me, particularly the middle pair I put him on, and I'm basically hoping that I've misread both hands, and he's actually on some kind of 4 that he's played cautiously and is willing to call with.
If he backdoored the flush or slowplayed a boat, he now gets to make a big raise that puts me to a tough decision. If I'd raised to 75 or 80, I think he would be priced into a lookup with a middle pair, and it would be cheaper to throw away if he comes over the top and I believe him.
At any rate, that represents the third time I can remember where I misread my hand, but it's the only time where my hand actually improved when I learned what it really was. Interestingly, it's the second time it has happened when I've played ace-wheel card, the flop came with a paired wheel card, and I put myself on trips with an ace kicker. Clearly I'm trying to will myself into a monster; I'll have to be careful with that.