Thursday, July 12, 2007

re: The Night of Sick Beats and Sicker Laydowns Hand #1

Why do I not f'in raise? First of all, I have already put you on a hand after your bet so I don't need to collect any more information. I gave you too much credit for your pair because I assumed I was notched and needed to catch up. I was also ready to raise your cbet if an Ace flopped and smooth calling will sell AK better. So the flop comes out 9 high. That's good and bad. We are both on overpairs to the board but I assume that I am still behind. Ryan bets, I flat call because raising is only going to balloon the pot and I'm assuming that I'm behind. Turn is a third club, low. Since I have Ryan on a pocket pair, I am positive he can't have a flush. He bets and I raise figuring that he can't call an *obvious* I-have-a-flush pot builder. At some point he checks his hole cards. Did not realize that he had a GSSFD. If a club comes on the river I am done with this hand but will pay a modest value bet just to confirm my read on his hole cards. If it is Jc then I'll pay a little extra. If the river is a blank then I think I can steal the hand from Ryan with a sizable bet on the end representing a flush and knowing he cannot have a higher flush. River is a glorious J and I know that I have the better hand here. The only pocket pair I'm losing to is pocket Sevens and that was absolutely too low a pocket for me to put Ryan on. It is checked to me for some reason? Ryan has been looking me up a lot lately so I try to figure out a good number. I take the $9.99 pricing philosophy and discount a little off of four stacks into a fairly decent sized pot by then. A little surprised Ryan calls (good thing I didn't need to sell a flush!) but I show down a hand that was ahead all the way anyway. Ryan feels better about that.


Ryan said...

I'm sorry, Martini, I call BS.

"I have already put you on a hand after your bet so I don't need to collect any more information."

I raise to 7 preflop five-handed, and you have me on exactly QQ? I have seen you make some masterful reads before, in particular our AK vs. AK hand, but frankly, if your reading skills were that consistently amazing against me, you’d have a lot more of my money by now. I’d call BS even if you had been right…as it is, you were wrong, which underscores that raising in those situations will get you valuable info when you are behind, and more money in the pot when you are ahead.

I mean, you could have said, “I thought for sure I was good with JJ, and that if no overcards came on the flop you’d never put me on jacks. Then I could let you be aggressive and build a huge pot for me.” You might still be lying to yourself with that explanation, but at least it would tell a story that made sense.

As it is…you say you have me on QQ exactly (based on a standard preflop raise five-handed), and the flop comes 9 high. What are you calling my pot-sized bet on the flop for? To chase your two-outer? Let’s say you had seen my hand preflop and I didn’t know it, and it was QQ. Are you seriously telling me you would play the flop that way? I don’t buy it; you’d try to hit your set for 7 based on the implied odds or use an A or a K on the flop to bet me off QQ, and then fold to the 20 on that flop, like any good player would.

Why not admit that you had me on a range of hands, some of which had you beat and some of which didn’t? In that case, it was a mistake for you not to raise preflop, and an even bigger one not to raise the flop.

I mean, I admit I played the hand questionably on the turn, and like absolute shit on the river, and I posted about it for all to see. I made a total denial call that cost me a lot of chips, and I’m letting that fact burn into my brain in the hopes that I will make fewer shit calls like that in the future.

Meanwhile, a day later, you have made a series of contradictory justifications for each of your actions instead of owning up to some suboptimal play in the hand. At least my denial ended with my call on the river!

I’m sorry for being so harsh on you this early in our collective blog, here, but for this to be useful, you have to assess your hands honestly and learn from them, not cover your ears and scream “la la la la la I knew exactly what I was doing every step of the way la la la la la la la I played it just right la la la la la la!”

At least give me, “Yeah, I played preflop and the flop in classic weak/tight Martin style; it's a leak I need to work on. I like how I played the turn and river, but I’m pretty lucky Ryan paid me off with that dumbass call.”

That’s an assessment I can get behind.

Marshall said...

Martin, you and I had a similar convo yesterday on IM, and I outlined most of what Ryan said. If that is your style/comfort zone/new approach to poker, then that's one thing. You should play not only the best you can by the book, but also within your comfort zone.

The problem with this hand is that your side doesn't tell a story. You have Ryan on an overpair but you are calling his bets with an underpair. You are basically saying you are floating him, but you need to have a pretty scary turn for that to be possible. Also, you know that Ryan loves his overpairs, yet you want to try to take him off of one. Uphill battle. You certainly don't have to play a hand well everytime, but you have to know when you were off in your read/play afterwards.

If you want to get better and or learn you will have to have a better way to analyze your play afterwards I think.

Sushi Cowboy said...

Just to clarify, I did not mean to imply that I had you on exactly QQ. I can see where I stated that I thought I was "notched" which I now retract. I felt like I was behind which includes but is not limited to being notched. My read was that you had a premium pair when you bet. Do I have "consistently amazing" reads on Ryan? I wish. But no. But every so often I get good reads that turn out to be accurate. This hand was one of those times. In that case I put you on exactly a high pocket pair. My range of hands for you was JJ-AA. TT was off the radar. So my range was too constrained but the pocket pair was correct. I assumed that I am at best chopping so I want to keep the pot small and go set mining. If you have JJ and feel like you are behind, are you going to fold for 7 chips? I'll see a flop.

Flop did not deliver my set. I am not going to pump the pot because I feel like I'm behind.

I call the pot sized flop bet because the flop was two suited. As I mentioned earlier if there are exactly three clubs on the board by the river then I don't feel you can call a large river bet because my read says you can't have a flush. As it turned out, once I hit my set, I cannot put you on a hand that is beating me anymore so I tune the bet to the valuish side instead of trying to come up with a number that you can't call.

My post was not trying to make "justifications" or analysis of my play. I just was transcribing my thought process.

What is my analysis?

a) Under no circumstances am I going to fold JJ for seven chips even if I feel I am behind.

b) My read was Ryan had a premium pair and I gave him just slightly too much credit but the read of pair was correct.

c) The call on the flop was the most suspect of the hand. I have not done the pot/implied odds analysis of this maneuver. I would not have bothered with this unless I had Ryan on a pocket pair. I concur that this is the weakest part of the hand.

Marshall said...

Ok well that does make more sense. The flop call was the worst part, and you are acknowledging that. By your read, you were basically playing 22. You were looking to flop a set and get paid off by Ryan with an over pair. That explains the flop call.

My take on the hand: You can find a better spot. There are too many "ifs". You NEEDED a club to peel off on the turn or river. You also needed it to not come running clubs. Also your read had to be right, and it was WAY off. I'm not sure how you think your read was anywhere near correct here. You had him on a hand that had you crushed, but you were crushing him. I think if you took it to a range of hands instead, then 10 10 would be in it. But you had him locked into an overpair, and played it accordingly.

I do like the idea of trying to take the pot from Ryan (It's basically the only reason I go to WNP ahha), but you should pick a spot where he doesn't have an overpair, and where you don't specific scare cards to come. Calling those pot sized bets when you are 'behind' can become very costly, very quickly.

Also, if I feel like I am for sure behind, I would fold JJ pre for 7. I just basically never get a read that strong from a standard bet.

On a side note, I wouldn't even bother trying to argue with me about these points because we won the War, and I will send you back to Yakima if I have to.

Ryan said...

OK, that's all I wanted; an acceptance that, given your read, your flop play was extremely suspect, even "bad," and that calling was the worst of your three options there.

If you have me on JJ, QQ, KK, or AA, then non-club A and K are no longer cards you can expect to use to bet me off a hand, so those aren't really safe "take it from him on the turn" outs.

Further, If I do have QQ, KK, or AA, there is a 50% chance I'm holding the club (If I have JJ, it's 100%), in which case, you aren't going to be me off when a club comes anyway, meaning that none of your clubs are reliable "take it from him on the turn" outs, either.

There's also the fact that I have never shown a consistent fear of the possible flush such that you should expect to be able to bet me off a premium pair even if I don't have a club.

All in all, an awful spot to be thinking in terms of calling the flop to steal on a later street, given your read.

Little did you know you were slow playing the whole time...