Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Calculating EV for tourneys
Well some of us are playing in Friday's tourney so this might be timely. I'm involved in a thread on a forum about whether to call or fold a hand. The question is this: cutoff (good tourney player) pushes his stack of 10k into the pot after it folds to him. Button and SB fold. Blinds are 1K/2K and it costs 8K more to call with T5os. I run numbers to back up my contention that it's a fold because you are not adequately priced in to call with junk. Then I thought further and wondered if the 10K stack were the short stack and it was a bubble scenario, does that change the decision any? T5 is not priced in to call any reasonable pushing hand but is there enough extra value in eliminating the short stack and guaranteeing a cash? And how would you go about calculating how much EV on the hand you can give up if cashing is a valid factor to consider?