So I did some back of the envelope math and figured that my play is EV+ in general but I can expect a lower return % at 500/1000. The only thing I had to worry about was how many beats I could take before having to return to the kiddie pool. I figure I am going to show down about 10% of my hands and I will win over half of them. As long as I can maintain that run rate the wins will offset all of the antes and bring-ins that I pay. If I see a showdown and lose, it will cost me somewhere between 5K and 10K. If I have rotten luck and lose three showdowns in a row again, I calculate that I might be down around 20K-25K.
With my roll up to 150K and 100K being kinda my "safety zone" that I don't want to drop below, I believe that I can go to the 500/1000 tables and play my normal game and if I run into a bad stretch I will pull off. 10K is the default buy-in at those tables and I think that is the first trigger point if I am down that much. If I get 20K loser then I will need to review the hands to see if I would do anything differently. 30K down and is my stop loss point at which time I *must* leave the tables immediately. That much in losses should be statistically unlikely but I need to draw the line somewhere.
There are enough players at this hour that there are two 500/1000 tables running. I stick to my philosophy and sit down at both of them. Yes I have more money on the table than I have ever had before at one time but again it is fixed limit and I think I ironically run a bigger risk to my roll by only sitting at one table where I may be tempted to make boredom calls or tilt off chips if I take a bad beat.
I happily fold some hands and then pick up and A3/8 hand with lots of high cards showing on the table. I take a whack at making a low. Not much action and I actually get to walk most of the way there. Nothing doing on the river and I fold.
On the other table I make a modest but qualifying low against a presumed high and took down a "smallish" (for these tables) low half pot of 3300. Sugarrific.
Three hands later I get a speculative Kc2c/8c flush semi-low draw and decide to take a card to see 4th street if I can see it for just the bring in and no complete which happened. 3d, I would of course have preferred 3c but that keeps me in the hand. One small bet to go to 5th which brings an Ah. Still interested. 5c on 6th street and I think about betting it but play it very conservative. Checks around. Freakin' gin card on 7th, the 4c to give me nut low and the flush. I get action from two other players and we cap. Catching the flush on the river was a coup because my flush was well disguised. I look like I'm betting a low so I got action from Jacks up and the other guy has a 7 high straight which he figures is good for one side at least or a likely scoop. Instead I rake a 24,000 pot. I believe that must be a record for me.
NEXT HAND on that table I start with 5c7h/3s and call the bring in. 6s on 4th, one small bet all around. Brick on 5th and I'm thinking of bailing with some other low-ish looking hands out there but it checks around so I get a free card. 6th street treats me right (did I mention that I like this game?) and my gutter is filled by 4c. Guy to my left starts with a 1K bet and I bump it to 2K which gets called by the four others who put in the 1K. Blank on 7th for me and it is checkd to me. I bet and am called by three others. I scoop both halves for a total of 18,350. Right after that hand I run away like a little wuss so I can count up all my newly acquired chips.
Running good. 17 hands. Went to showdown three times and won them all with two major scoops. Bought in for 2x20K, cashed out for exactly 65 large.
Now 173,075. More margin for a bad run of cards and edges me closer to the double century mark.