Kahlua's Table, .50/1 NLHE, MB and I are both at about 1.5 buy-ins. I face a raise from somewhere and call with my trouble hand QTos. Flop comes out a glorious AKJ two hearts for the nutters. I believe it was three way 7 chip pre-flop so I lead out with a bait bet of 13 hoping to get raised. MB complies with Ax(deuce?) suited and opens the door with a min raise. I think Jason comes along for the 26 and I pop it up to 80. Mary Beth "has to call". Jason gets out of the way. Turn is a Heart (6h?) and I'm done with this hand since I have no redraws. If the board pairs I could try a bluff but I'm 99% to just check/fold under all circumstances. River I believe is a fourth Heart, not that makes a difference because I'm still done but I figure I'd make an ultra post oak at it and try to rep the Ah and that I drew out to a higher flush on her. Royal throws out the idea of a four chip bet (one player per hand please). I do so and get min-raised back. I'll pay 4 for the info and MB shows the nuts.
Yeah, I know that I *want* players to draw and if the turn was a blank then I'm definitely shoving the rest in at that point. But I had a couple big hands where flushes caught up on me and that was a bummer. Based on the flop play I think it was fairly obvious to everyone where both MB and I stood. I Stoved it and was surprised that I didn't price her out as much as I thought I did. She is only a 40/60 dog there. Odd.
Anyway, I think MB has been visiting Jasonland a little too much. I don't like the re-raise on the flop as I brought up. He Ace/nothing is losing to the majority of hands that are interested in that flop yet she puts more money in while behind and opens up the door to have to call off another 50+ chips to chase her flush. She has no implied odds once she does call either. Then I get two free cards which could possibly trump her flush in case I had AK or something instead of a straight. But she took down a big pot so I guess she made the right ROT play.
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So can anyone explain why win % for a flush goes up in this situation? MB had top pair granted but that is way behind a made straight so it seems like the only thing she has as outs are nine Hearts and runner runner boat draws, and Broadway chops?
9 flush outs = 36% (or so) plus 3 broadway chop outs, plus running boat outs, I could see it getting up near 40%...
More thoughts to come in a bit, but I don't really hate the play on either side of this hand, except for the sizes of both your raises on the flop.
I'm not supposed to re-raise with the nuts? I get raised and I three bet her. Or are you saying I should have led out for more first?
except for the *sizes" of your raises. fro 26 to 80 with Jason calling in between seems too small a price to charge, given that a flush draw from one of the two is highly likely at this point (although frankly, I would have put Jason on the flush draw at that point given the action).
I like at least 100, if not more. There's what...about 90 in the pot when it gets to you? Your call of the 26 makes it well over 100 in the pot already, and you raised it 54, putting about 160 in the pot with 54 more to call.
This is "back of the napkin in my brain" math, but it's something like that, right? Calling 54 in that spot is almost no-brainer for MB, even for just one more card.
If you are just trying to price her out of the turn only and then hammer it if a non-heart comes, it's OK I suppose, but I think a raise of 54 looks pretty weak when you look at the odds and the situation, with two others along for the ride at that point.
Good point. I didn't do the full math on the hand, I was thinking mostly in terms of three betting MB and not considering overall pot odds though frankly I don't think MB was factoring those in either. Though honestly I didn't realize how high her percentage was at the time either.
I think my tight nature was taking over there and not wanting to get overly invested in a hand where I know I was vulnerable with no re-draws and up against an opponent who may not have been able to lay down the nut flush draw at any price. I wanted the bet to a) send the message that I am way there already b) get Jason out of the hand because I don't want him muddying the waters c) get more money into the pot when I am ahead or at least not losing.
I guess I wanted MB to call the 80 and for a blank to come off so I could push on the turn for the rest of my stack. I did not want to take down the pot on the spot so I suppose I'm just being ROTty because my play didn't work out. Kinda like raising a decent amount pre-flop with Kings hoping an Ace doesn't come off so you can hammer the pot but being ready to bail if you get action with an Ace on the flop.
Wow, I'm so honored to be the topic of a post! I'm not a math junkie and don't play poker by the strict numbers so I know that sometimes I am in Jasonland. However, your re-raise wasn't enough to make me want to lay down my hand, If you had gone all-in, yes I would have folded. Plus, I have to admit that the thought of winning some of my chips back from the QQ lay down may have influenced part of my call.
That being said, I don't think my play was awful. In fact, I think my play was leaning more toward "correct". Phil Gordon says that if someone bets 3/4 the size of the pot (I think it was about 3/4 by the time it got back around to you), you should have at least 8 outs with 2 more cards to come so I don't think it was a bad call. Even if you had bet the size of the pot, I only needed 9 outs with 2 more cards to come. Yes, I should have bet after the turn card came but my gut told me that you were done...
You know me, I'm sure that you'll get your money back in the near future. I do appreciate your comments about my play. I'm always interested in getting better, smarter, etc. about poker.
Oh, I forgot to mention that the reason I min-raised you after your $13 was to get Jason out of the hand. I didn't think you had the straight. I thought you might be on a flush or straight draw due to the small raise. Your re-raise to $80 told me that your hand was stronger but b/c it was only $54 more, I did feel that calling was a good move.
Martin,
I have to agree with Ryan here (is this a first for me?) but I want to take it one step further. The best move in my book is an all in push after the raise by MB.
There is only one hand out there that is mathematically ahead of you, Q,10 of hearts. Think of every other possible hand out there as being on a draw.
MB min raising tells me she has one of 4 things, 2 pair, a set, a flush draw, or a pair and a flush draw.
I don't know how many hands this is but think of it of at least 20 hands you are beating, one hand you are not.
Everyone has commented that they wanted me out of the hand so an all in push accomplishes this goal.
Your reasoning that you wanted to wait for the turn to blank has some fallacies. Think of how many non blank turn cards there are. There are the 9 flush cards, and 9 cards to pair the board. There are the mini scare cards (not real scary) that will make broadway chops. So you have to dodge at least these 18 scare cards as there is no way you can be sure which draw she is on.
Don't forget the concept of fold equity as well. Does MB seem like the type that really wants to coin flip with you. And you are ahead on the coin flip for every possibility except Q-10 of hearts.
Hind sight is 20/20 but I think the all in push is the best possible move in your situation.
Jason, of all people! I am surprised that is your take. Like I said, I wanted to win a big pot and was looking for more action. Yes, I could have probably pushed there and taken it down but putting in 80 was the pot growth I was looking for. It built the pot up while still pricing out MB to catch a Heart on the turn.
I don't know what MB has but it sure smelled like a flush draw. Assuming that's the case, I could either push and likely take down a pot with 86 chips in it or raise, get called, and if a blank comes off then I take down a pot worth 207. 5/6 times that play is going to work. If she folds to the raise, fine, I'll take the pot as is. If she calls and a blank comes then I take down a much bigger pot and I'm fine with that too. If she calls and a Heart comes off then that sucks for me.
The only thing that I guess I'm bitching about is that I feel like I got Daniel Negreanu'd by flopping the nuts and losing the hand. If I had AQ for top pair and a gutshot and lost, no big deal though of course the hand wouldn't have played out the same way.
Oh and for the record, there is absolutely NO WAY that MB is raising with QhTh (even min-raising) in that situation. That is the absolute last thing that I can give her credit for in that situation. Even though she is vulnerable to a Nut Flush and boats (think back to Royal's hand), I think that it is just way too hard for MB to raise with the current nuts and a fantastic re-draw in that situation.
Just seems like a play the player situation. I may coin flip with you if I have MB's hand, even though I am behind. I think Ryan might coin flip with you as well. Joe and Derek almost certainly would. I think MB lays it down.
Fold equity is a nice thing, if applied in the right situation. MB may not be a math whiz, but she did what she thought was the mathematically corrrect move based on the size of your raise. What if a 2 came? You might think this is a blank, but it would give her another draw for boats. She may call and then take her chances on the river.
I still like the push, because you have no redraws. Think of playing Omaha and you are headsup. You are playing against the 6 possible hands of your opponent. In our case you were only against 2 other hands. You flop the current nuts in Omaha, heads up and you have no redraws. What do you do? Likely push as many chips into the pot as you can. Hit the pot button on line. Since we don't have a pot button, the common bet is a 3 or 4 bet, but a much bigger bet than this can be appropriate.
Kind of reminds me of the hand I had where i got the runner runner straight flush. If you remember, I put in a big bet on the flop with Marsh and Joe in the pot. I had the current nuts, and what I thought were no redraws.
If U were the one with Q10 suited in hearts, then I would hate the push, because you really would hate to see a fold.
Surprise suggestion from an action junkie huh?
Jason you are a lighting rod for blog discussion. Let me take this one paragraph at a time.
Just seems like a play the player situation. I may coin flip with you if I have MB's hand, even though I am behind. I think Ryan might coin flip with you as well. Joe and Derek almost certainly would. I think MB lays it down.
Personally I don't consider it a "coin flip" scenario unless the odds are a point or two off of 50/50. Regardless, I wasn't interested in being involved in a full stack confrontation on the flop so that is why I didn't push. I wanted to build the pot big enough to take down something sizable on the turn but didn't want to put in too many chips in case a bad card comes off on 4th street.
I also wanted to shape my flop raise so that a push on the river is the right sized bet. It is possible that if my flop re-raise was too large and I was called then neither MB nor I would have enough of a stack to make MB fold on the turn.
Fold equity is a nice thing, if applied in the right situation. MB may not be a math whiz, but she did what she thought was the mathematically corrrect [sic] move based on the size of your raise. What if a 2 came? You might think this is a blank, but it would give her another draw for boats. She may call and then take her chances on the river.
As I said, best case for me is for MB to call the flop re-raise and then for a blank to fall so I could push and take the pot down since MB would have to basically commit the rest of her stack (roughly a full buy in) with only one card to come.
If a deuce came off on the river you are right, I don't know if that gave her boat outs. I would still push and if she had four more outs to outdraw me then she would be making a less mathematically wrong call than if she didn't have boat outs.
I still like the push, because you have no redraws. Think of playing Omaha and you are headsup. You are playing against the 6 possible hands of your opponent. In our case you were only against 2 other hands. You flop the current nuts in Omaha, heads up and you have no redraws. What do you do? Likely push as many chips into the pot as you can. Hit the pot button on line. Since we don't have a pot button, the common bet is a 3 or 4 bet, but a much bigger bet than this can be appropriate.
I don't like a push. Yes it's "getting your money in while you are ahead" but I want to control when and where I get my money in and that was a tenuous situation because I know that I'm vulnerable to what looks pretty clearly like a flush draw to me. I denied her pot odds to draw on the turn so why would pouring more gas on the fire necessarily make her fold? Some players see a ton of chips in the middle and feel like gambling and I don't want to be part of playing stack lotto so I'm fine with waiting to see the turn card first.
And your analogy to an Omaha hand doesn't exactly sway my opinion either, especially coming from a self-professed n00b Omaha player. Omaha is all about having draws to the nuts, not necessarily about having the nuts on the flop. In fact it is possible to have nuts on the flop and not be favored to win or having the nuts on the turn and drawing dead.
Kind of reminds me of the hand I had where i got the runner runner straight flush. If you remember, I put in a big bet on the flop with Marsh and Joe in the pot. I had the current nuts, and what I thought were no redraws.
This hand does not remind me of your runner-runner straight flush because I had no redraws but it is always nice to reminisce over catching one outers.
If U were the one with Q10 suited in hearts, then I would hate the push, because you really would hate to see a fold.
As I said before, I don't want to push in that situation and having QhTh changes almost nothing. If you don't want a fold in that situation then you are missing the fact that any Heart other than 9h screws me even more because I now have an even stronger second best hand which is likely going to cost me more money. And if you think that having the nut flush on the turn means that you should slow down betting so you don't lose customers then you are begging someone to boat up on you.
Surprise suggestion from an action junkie huh?
Nope, it is completely consistent with the moves of an action junkie. Why protect a hand that can be trumped when you can have the thrill of getting sucked out on?
(posting this before reading Martin's reply above, BTW)
You have the nuts; the goal here is to cause your opponents to make a bad call, not fold. Jason, you also make no mention of stack sizes, which is a crucial oversight when recommending a push, here.
The central question for Martin is: does MB or Jason have two pair or a set, meaning I should fear a paired board on the turn? I feel it's unlikely, but I guess not out of the realm of possibility. Both are more likely to play strong hands slowly than your average WNP'er, but flat calling with two pair or a set here seems like a mistake not even Jason would make. MB raised, but would she really minraise with 2P or a set? That seems like a weird (read: terrible) raise for either of those hands given the texture of the flop.
If he doesn't fear a paired board on the turn and both Jason and MB have solid stacks (which I think they did), then pushing is completely incorrect. Jason, it feels like you are suggesting a push based on ROT (the poker world recoils in shock). "Push, because that would have caused MB to fold and she wouldn't have sucked out on you" seems to be your argument. Again, Martin doesn't want flush draws to fold, he wants flush draws to call incorrectly. Ideally, a flush draw calls incorrectly on the flop, misses on the turn, and then calls incorrectly again.
A flush draw is 4:1 to hit on the turn, with 9 outs in 45 cards. Assuming stacks are deep enough to be able to give a flush draw incorrect odds again on the turn, Martin's bet does actually cause MB to make a mistake, so I was wrong to suggest her call of 54 was a no-brainer. She has to be certain that Jason will call 54 behind her without also being on a flush draw for it to be correct.
I still would have liked Martin's raise to be a little higher because if the flush draw is going to call 54 more, they will probably call 60-80 more, but if stack sizes are as I remember them (both Jason and MB had 180+ behind as of the flop), then Martin gave a bad price to flush draws in the context of the "hammer the non-heart turn" plan.
Here's why stack sizes are so important: if calling a raise to 80 puts 210 in the pot and leaves MB with, say, 70 behind, she'll be getting 4:1 on a call when Martin puts her all in on a non-heart turn, which would be correct. If MB goes to the turn with 105 behind, he can put her in with 3:1 odds, which would again be incorrect. I believe both Jason and MB would have had 100+ behind after calling 54 to see the turn.
Martin sucessfully got his opponent to make a mistake, then successfully avoided reverse implied odds by not losing anything more when the heart came (yeah, whatever, the river bet and call was for humor, not poker).
So, the universe is preserved, Jason and I don't agree on this hand. I think a push is a terrible play given the stack sizes, and the raise to 80 should have been more, it still caused an opponent mistake and wasn't that bad.
MB's call isn't a mistake if she thinks a third ace or pairing her kicker also represent wins, but figuring out where Martin is at from her perspective is something I'll leave for another post.
It's funny how Jason thinks the optimal play is for the nuts to push here in order to make the opponent who is drawing to fold.
Under the assumption that you want to make the most money possible, the ideal play is to push and have the other player CALL. Imagine if you could get action every time you had the nuts and committed your whole stack. Sure sometimes you'd lose to a suckout but in the long run you couldn't ask for a better scenario.
But since you can't always count on getting someone to always give their chips to you like that, raising to give the wrong price to drawers is the best you can do. You still will get sucked out on but in the long run that is still the optimal play to maximize profit.
Another thing is we have to remember who we are playing. I give MB credit for knowing the basics. And basic pot odds here break down like this:
By the time it gets back to her, she has to call 54 chips and the pot has about 100. She is getting 2:1 on her money. A flush draw is slightly more than 2:1 to hit by the river, so if she is going to go with this hand until the end, then she is getting the right price. Also if Jason comes along she is getting an even better price.
I wholeheartedly disagree with Jason thinking that a shove is appropriate.
I think this hand was pretty straight forward. Martin flops nuts, and bets. MB wants Jason out so she min raises, Martin re-raises because again, he has the nuts. MB has nut draw that she isn't going to lay down easily. (I wouldn't either). Turn hits her and she lets Martin off easy. Martin goes on TNP to whine about.
Did I miss anything?
The pot had about 160 when MB had 54 more to call, not 100. A pretty big difference, but your final-paragraph assessment is basically correct. There's more to learn from this hand than you are giving it credit for, though.
Ok so she is getting basically 3:1 then and she is 2:1 dog to hit by the river? How is that not a no-brainer call? I am calling in that spot every time I think.
It was not an all in. She is only going to collect a third Heart on the turn 19% of the time but paid 54 into a 153 pot which is justified only for something that happens 35% of the time on the next card.
If the turn was a blank I am shipping my stack and MB would have to basically play for the rest of hers to draw to her flush.
Exactly. Marsh, your dismissal of MB's call as an easy one that you'd make every time, despite being incorrect, is what makes this hand interesting. It's easy to fall into "river assessment" when it comes to odds and calculate accordingly. Heck, my first-pass assessment above was that it was a "no brainer" for MB to call 54 into 160, same as yours.
It took working it through some more for me to realize that MD doesn't have the odds, although folding there probably takes more discipline than any TNPers have at this point. Nonetheless, it would have been correct. The key factors:
1) Martin will have you on the flush draw with your call of 80, and will not pay you off. You have no implied odds, and he demonstrated this with his play when the heart came off.
2) You know Martin has, at absolute worst, two pair to be reraising in this spot. Even if you give him a range of QT, AK, AJ, KJ, AA, KK, and JJ, and not just the nuts, you still don't have correct turn odds (see below).
Frankly, with MB minraising and him being willing to reraise, I think you can put him squarely on QT. I mean, if Martin doesn't have the nuts and a player like MB minraises his flop bet, he is going to be extremely wary and probably see a turn without building the pot further. But that's the thing, even if you give him a two-pair-or-better range, the turn odds are something like this:
Board: Ad Kh Jh 6c
QT,AK,AJ,KJ,AA,KK,JJ: 76.65%
Ah2h: 23.35%
http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/simulate.jsp?g=he&b=Ad+Kh+Jh+6c&h1=QT%2C+AK%2C+AJ%2C+KJ%2C+AA%2C+KK%2C+JJ&h2=Ah+2h&h3=&h4=&h5=
This isn't exact because I had to simulate the turn odds by calculating the river odds if the turn had been a total blank (6c). With one more blank in the deck for the turn, MB's turn odds are slightly worse than this against the widest conceivable Martin range.
Since she needs 3:1 to chase the turn based on 54:160, she's not quite getting it here. Since gut reaction is "top pair + nut flush draw = no brainer call getting 3:1," I think this hand has some very interesting lessons on why you should, in certain situations, calculate your odds for the turn only, and dismiss implied odds altogether.
I knew the odds and calculated them, and I still think its a no brainer.
I don't see how you don't go to the river with that hand. I mean against the flopped nuts you are 60/40. Against 2 pair you might be drawing live to a higher 2 pair even. I don't know why you wouldn't be seeing the river in this situation. You guys act like if she whiffs the turn its some guaranteed thing that Martin shoves. Why is that? Just because he says it now? What about if the turn was another J. Does Martin shove there? Maybe, maybe not. What if it's another Ace? I am certainly willing to take that hand to battle for 1 buy in.
She could have as many as what, 14 outs? I am not leaving if I feel I am the favorite and drawing to the nuts.
Also, she said herself that she didn't think Martin had it. I thought he did, but that is just a byproduct of Martin's d0nk style. Sometimes he plays the nuts, sometimes he jams with crap or draws.
I do find it interesting though how you can basically remove implied odds in this situation. Unless Martin is on a highly unlikely flush draw, any heart freezes all of your action immediately. I am actually coming around to the fact that a shove by MB might be the best play there.
With a shove she gets: 1) Fold equity. Martin is dumping 2 pair or worse there, possibly a set even. 2. A lot of money in the pot so that he can't escape if she hits, and 3) 40% at the worst, 60% best case scenario.
It's official, she should have shipped.
MB's hand was 40/60, not 60/40.
Yes, if the turn is a blank then I'm shoving on the turn. That was the the intent of my flop bet. I wanted to leave enough behind in both of our stacks so that a push on the turn is basically playing for all of our stacks.
You are right about her fold equity on the flop if she shoves. If I had two pair then I'm folding to a shove on the flop no problem, she can have my 20 chips.
I assumed that the reader understood that she was on the 40 end of the 60/40, especially when I wrote 40% at the worst, 60% best case scenario.
And also, she very well may have been on the 60 end for all she knew...
I like a push better than a call from MB for sure, and it’s almost certainly what I would have done with her hand in that spot. Whether or not a push is a +EV move again depends on the exact stack sizes, and Martin’s range. I think your assessment of Martin’s range is way too broad, and when you narrow it down appropriately (it is Martin, after all), it's awfully close. Here are my premises:
1) Martin would not three bet a minraise from MB on that flop with two pair. I included a range down to two pair in the calculation above to demonstrate that even with that wide a range, the odds to chase the turn alone for 54 weren't quite there. He has at worst a set, and arguably he has QT and QT only.
2) MB has no fold equity with a push, because there's no way he's on two pair. Have you ever seen Martin bet out, reraise, and then fold to an all in that gives him no worse than 3:1? As soon as he reraises MB's min raise, you know he is married to the hand and is not folding. Come on.
So, assuming the blinds folded preflop, there is 24 in on the flop, and by the time MB is staring at Martin's raise to 80, there is exactly 156 in. Let's assume Martin has her covered. If Martin is on QT or a set, it is 65/35 to the river.
If she has exactly a buyin (200) at the start of the hand, she has 167 left. If she shoves, Martin calls, and she’s getting 1:1.93 pot odds against 1:1.86 odds to win. In this scenario, a push is marginally +EV.
If she has 240 at the start of the hand, she has 207 left. If she shoves, Martin calls, and she’s getting 1:1.75 pot odds against 1:1.86 odds to win. In this scenario, a push is marginally -EV.
If you further think that Martin would only put in a third raise with QT, which may be the case, the odds are 37.3/62.7 or 1:1.68 (she can't know suits, and Martin's 40/60, which is really more 39/61, is based on his black QT), and pushing with both 200 or 240 to start the hand is +EV.
It’s funny that restricting him to the nuts only actually improves MB’s odds, since he has no redraws.
Anyway, I found this hand to be so interesting because of all the razor-thin choices it produces. EVs shift from + to – on the slightest differences in stack sizes, raise amounts, and hand ranges.
Which is one reason I definitely would have pushed in MB’s shoes. Without the aid of two days and poker stove, I would have said, “Eh, it’s close enough” and shipped it. Calling just lets Martin get away if a heart comes off, and puts you in a tough spot if something besides an ace or a heart comes off.
At least we can agree that Jason was wrong.
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