Off to Vegas - Jason Update

Marsh, myself, MB and Martin will be in Vegas next week, so no Cake for us. Since my last post, I have been basically treading water except for another heater on Sunday. I continue to move up, but no dramatic change.

Some general observations. As you move up in stakes, in my opinion, the players are not better overall at the .25/,50 stakes vs. the .10/.20 stakes. Of course, you will occassionally run into tables with all good players but there are still plenty of opportunities to find calling stations and donks. Even when you hit the .50/$1 tables, at least in Omaha, there are donks, just much fewer of them. My message is fear not, if you can beat the low stakes, the higher stakes are beatable too.

Here are my hand highlights:

Omaha Bluff by me

I am up here against a novice player who keeps typing in the chat, I can't beat you guys. I do have KQxx, no spades, but I do not believe it is good. His betting patterns look like he is protecting his hand against the spade draw. When the spade hits, I take a shot at bluffing the flush. He took all of his time then folded.


Boat over Boat

I check raise on the flop as I am expecting a Cbet from the original raiser. When I get a call from another player, I am hoping to boat up as I figure villain has at least a K or pocket 6's. I boat up on the river, but I have a smaller boat.

Best draw I could hope for

I am playing suited connectors from the button and flop a monster, the open ended straight flush draw with a pair. I can laugh at his meager overpair as I know I am ahead. Lucky river hits for me.


Shocking Jack High Omaha Win

An amazingly donkish call from my opponent. My river bet is designed to have whatever his high hand is fold so I don't have to share the pot as I have the nut low. He has the second nut low with holding of 2,4,7,9, a truly awful Omaha high low hand that he should not be playing anyways. I am the beneficiary of his second nut low and my jack high holds up for the high hand.

Very cool bluff by villain

I had the nut straight on the turn and I make a scared blocking bet on the river. My astute opponent with the busted flush draw, raises me with his big stack. I don't think a call here is long run EV+ and I fold. Villain gets a note that he is very capable of making big river bluffs. I like playing against these kind of players as they make the game quite challenging. Hats off to him for stealing this pot.

Flopped nut boat does not hold up

One of the few times I will slow play in Omaha is if I flop the nut boat. Here I bet the turn and the river, but villain catches up with the AQ bigger boat.

2 pair slow play by villain\

Here is what I mean that the play does not get much better at .25/.50. My opponent had A,5os for 2 pair on the turn. Sure he could have been scared of the flush but at least a probe bet would be appropriate. I trip up with the lucky river and value bet with a call.

Calling station in action

This is one of the lamest ways to play Jacks. He was a total calling station so I even thought I was ahead with my Ace high flop bet. Lucky for me I caught up and sure enough he pays me off on the river bet. See what I mean, competition is not tough here at these levels on cake if you can find the right table.

Calling station number 2 in action\

We go from donk 1 to bigger donk 2. This lame guy calls me down on the river with A,4 os. I am glad he pays me off.

Calling station in Omaha

Calling stations are out there in Omaha too. This donk calls me down with his straight he hit on the river.


Capping a great run with quads

An aggressive player was just spewing chips and the table drained him of about $170.00. I was a big beneficiary. Here is a new player with an unknown hand. Typically I am much more aggressive but I was just too excited to get quads.

More quads

Quads are not that unusual. Another lame guy chasing a straight that hits.

Biggest Pot Win to Date

I am glad this guy makes a move on me with bottom 2 pair and a 9 high flush draw. With top set, I am not going anywhere. I am lucky to avoid spades on the turn and the river.

Ryan - Cake Update

I was in quite a downward spiral on Cake, but backed off a bit (still played, but not as often or for as long), and I'm pulling out of it. A big session on Christmas eve didn't hurt, and after sliding as far back as $155, I'm back up to $187.

Details here.

Vegas baby

Hey WNP Warlords,
It's mb here. I can't post as myself so I'm using Jason's... hope this isn't a breach of security or etiquette.

I'm looking for recommendations for tournaments/cash tables in Vegas. We're going on Jan. 1st and I would love to hear from you experienced Vegas-ites what was fun, what was profitable and any tips for favorites that you may have.

Thanks and Happy New Year!
mb aka "embeeseattle"

Micro-stakes and a half

Just finished a session and it looks like Cake may have brough an extra server online. Looks like there are three more .02/.04 tables but now a couple .03/.06 tables to ease the transition to nickel/dime games. According to the Google translation, the tables are named "London" but they are in a Cyrillic typeface(???).

Anyway, hopefully this is Cake's Xmas gift to us so they don't have to painful server slowdowns.

Digesting Your Cake

Have you ever wanted to review a grueling Cake poker session, only to be stymied by its lack of PokerTracker support? Ever wanted to see a beautiful skyward reaching graph of your winrate? Well today is your lucky day!

Some enterprising Caker over on 2+2 has been working on a Cake hand converter to allow you to do all of this and more. Here's how you do it:

1. Go here and download CakeConverter.exe
2. Open your Cake hand history folder (should be something like C:\Program Files\Cake Poker\Hand Histories\YOUR E-MAIL ADDRESS HERE\) and do some manual spring cleaning. It only supports Hold'Em cash games, so you'll want to move or delete any Omaha, Stud, or Tournament/Sit'n'Go histories.
3. Run CakeConverter, point it to your hand history folder and give it a different folder to spit the results out to. Hit the convert button.
4. Open up PokerTracker. If you don't own PokerTracker, you oughta. It's worth it.
5. Hit the 'Auto-import hand histories' button. Point it to the converted cake history folder. Click OK, and in a few minutes PokerTracker will parse all of your histories and know more about your game than you could ever imagine.

From there, your options are wide open. If you're not familiar with PokerTracker, it can tell you anything you ever wanted to know about how you play poker. What hands you win with, what hands you lose with, how often you raise preflop, how well you play when you get checkraised... If you're a stats and data geek like me, it's pretty amazing.

If you want to see a graph of your progress, first run your hand histories into PokerTracker, and then grab PokerGrapher.

The converter software has a few issues, mainly due to the (broken) way in which Cake formats its hand histories. It doesn't always know what cards your opponent showed down, so it just assumes they had AKo. Sometimes you can figure out what they actually had, as the hand history will show the winning hand ranking, like this:

Board [As Ks Qh 6c Qs]
Seat 3: BogeyMan showed [Ah Kd] and won ($100.50) with Full House, Queens full of Kings

Supposedly there are additional issues with positional stats, EV calculation, and a few other problems. But even with all of these caveats, it is totally worth your time to set all of this up.

And that's about it!

Gold Chips on Cake

Hey Cakers. I'm at a gold coin and a half right now for the month. Has anyone ever done anything with them? Are they worth going after if you are close to getting another one around the end of the month? Has anyone ever redeemed them? That George Foreman grill sure looks might tempting. Or that big screen if I just play enough to collect 11,999 more. Are they transferrable? And does anyone have a fix on how it is calculated? I assume it is all related to stakes you play at but is it by hands seen? Time? Rake paid? Total amount of money churned through the system?

Why we play

We've all probably seen the Full Tilt Poker commercial "Why We Play" and that brings up the subject as it applies to our group and everyone we play against both live and online.

I am sure that there are plenty of different reasons why everyone plays poker; the challenge to outplay someone, the drive to amass the largest stack possible, the social interaction with other players, and many more. Furthermore we are all a mixture of the different aspects to varying degrees. For instance, I'm sure nobody wants to leave stuck for the session but I'm also positive that some people care a lot more about their wins or losses than others. Some players don't sweat losing at small stakes and other will find it as distressing to lose a buy in at microstakes as they do at larger stakes. Some poker players treat a buy in as a night's entertainment and figure if they leave empty handed after playing all night then they got their money's worth while still having a chance to come out ahead which you couldn't expect from going to see a show. Then there are some players who would rather chase the dramatic suckout against all odds because they will get more gratification out of catching runner runner than they would folding because it is mathematically correct to do so.

I don't fault anyone's motivations and I'm certainly not going to try to change them. As long as they are getting what they want out of poker and only tapping appropriate funds then more power to them. But whatever the reasons for playing, they are going to be reflected in the decisions at the table and why they play is something to consider when optimizing play against another player.

On a sick heater - Jason Update

It is somewhat ironic that when I started this challenge, I built up a good size bankroll on NL Hold'm, then donked it almost all off on Omaha. The last 2 weeks my latest run has been almost exclusively on Omaha 8, some on Omaha High, and the least on Hold'm. My current strategy is to multitable with one Omaha 8 game or one Omaha High game and then a lower stakes NL Hold'm. I play pretty tight on both, and have no boredom factor with this much action.

Here are some hand highlights, a major reversal from the worst rivers ever.

STANDARD CATCH OF A 1,000:1 SHOT BY ME


This suckout is not quite as bad as it looks. I knew I was likely behind an overpair, but he was shortstacked and offering me better than 2:1 to call with 2 cards to come. When I add up the runner runner low, the runner for trip queens, the runner for 2 pair, the runner runner for the flush and the runner runner 2 specific cards for the royal flush,I figured a call was in order. Catching the royal flush was sure sweet!

BIG POT WIN

Got to love this turn and the guy way overvaluing his straight draw. I am a huge beneficiary of a table with soft play.



A brief venture to higher stakes

This guy kept raising everyone from position so I did not think he had AQ. He did. The lucky river for me comes through and he pays me off.

I am probably being a bit superstitious here and maybe a bit overly cautious but I will not be publishing (unless the number gets low again) my overall bankroll. Just don't think it is a good idea on line. At the lower stakes I don't think anyone would care but as the stakes increase it is probably best for me anyway to keep it offline. If anyone cares, I am happy to let them know verbally at WNP. Suffice it to say that I am currently above Marsh's highest reported total but not by much. My volatility is pretty wide so it could change at any moment.

Peer review on a bad session

After having the $100 border well within sight I had a big setback. In one session I came down almost 10%. Dropping 10% is one of my cutoff points in my bankroll management rules. It requires a 10 hour cooling off period to insure that I don't tilt off any more money or do something stupid. However, I would also like to get some second opinions on the hands. I don't *think* I would do anything differently in the same situations but wanted to hear from others before heading back to the felt.

Here is the link to the original post.

If someone could give me a sanity check, that'd be great. Thanks.

Some nasty hands.

I have been on quite a run lately. I will run my roll up to around 550-570 then back down to 470-480. Rinse and repeat. And every single time I get JUST to the point of breaking through, I get a hand like this it seems.

KK
I bet every damn street and get my money in exactly where I want to.

Or this one:
AA
Just nasty, but nothing extraordinary. I think it's more the timing of it than anything. I am coming off a productive session, and getting ready to sign off. Then I get in this awesome spot where I am going to go past the 600.00 mark...

Or annoying ones like this:
KK
Thankfully it was against a short stack and not a huge pot like the others. I guess half a buy in isn't small, but its not a monster either.

And then, for some reason, after all this good play and bad luck, I do something idiotic like this:
88
This is a truly shameful hand and not for the faint of heart. I was distracted on the turn and paid dearly for my lack of attention. I played it fine up until that point, but should have been fucking jamming the shit out of that turn. Then, after making that mistake, I failed to look at the board when I got it in. Only good news, (and probably the reason I gave the free card on the turn) is that I was not at a full buy in. I think I was hoping that he had a A, would pot bet the river and then I could come over the top having been committed. Of course I did just this, but didn't notice that an A had me crushed. So poor.

Anyhow, I will fight through my slump and power on to the higher levels soon enough. Damnit.

Worst possible 0/8 hand

This was a forum trivia question. Everyone pretty much homed in on Quad Deuces as the answer. I threw in a follow up question of "What is the worst O/8 hand without duplication of rank?" Anyone? Bueller?

Random hands

I've got AKo here. I've been playing nitty, and haven't seen this guy enter a pot yet. I've started folding in spots like this more often but man I still don't know.
http://cakepoker.com/HandHistory/?Hand=xcfBxMTFxcDEwcTExM3EzIjFws3ExM0%3d

AKo pf vs bad shorty. Gambooooooooooool!!!
http://cakepoker.com/HandHistory/?Hand=xcfBxMTFxcDEwcTExM3GwojFws3ExM0%3d

AKo pf vs habitual limper. Boring, but it continues the trend of AK hands.
http://cakepoker.com/HandHistory/?Hand=xcfBxMTFxcDEwcTExM3HwojFws3ExM0%3d

Flopped set on a monotone board. I'm about 80% sure he's got the flush on the flop and 95% sure he's got it by the turn. I need to run the numbers on this to see if my call is right there.
http://cakepoker.com/HandHistory/?Hand=xcfBxMTFxcDEwcTExM3AxIjFws3ExM0%3d

A6o. Raised by a passive player on river. He paused and checked on the turn so I had a vibe he made a good hand, and I was PRETTY sure he had me beat when he raised me that big, but can I fold a good two pair there?
http://cakepoker.com/HandHistory/?Hand=xcfBxMTFxcDEwcTExM3AwYjFws3ExM0%3d

still nibbling on a little cake...

As I expected, cake time has been pretty elusive since my last post...

Due to my absurd schedule this semester (three jobs and two classes), I've only played when I was either (1) stressed and needing to blow off some steam, (2) drinking, or (3) procrastinating when I should have been studying or writing. None of those put me in quite the right headspace, so I spent most of the last month and a half drifting up and down between $90 and $120. Playing too many hands, calling draws against the odds, refusing to lay down AQ preflop, etc... just making textbook bad decisions.

The process has also confirmed that I'm not a great grinder in ring games... I tilt easily, especially after two or three bad sessions, and I spend way too much time watching and stressing about my bankroll, instead of playing my game.

Which has led me back to tournaments... mostly $5 10 man SNGs, but with occasional guaranteed multi's thrown in, as well. No big wins in the multi's yet, but I've broken about even with a few small cashouts. The SNGs, however, have been a steady earner for me, and I've worked my way up to $156 at the moment.

I don't quite understand how I so easily brush off a bad run of luck in SNGs (like busting out on the bubble 4 times in a row), when the same exact hands in a ring game would result in two shots of whiskey and an ill-advised rebuy (or how this is only an issue for me online)... but at least I've identified my strengths and weaknesses. If the past is any guide, I'll probably have success playing ring games intermittently, but get into a bad headspace if I use it as my primary game.

On a side note -- Has anybody been playing rebuy tournaments? I've excluded them from my repertoire for now, for two reasons: (1) I haven't decided how to work them into my Ferguson rules and (2) I don't like playing multi-tourney's for less than $5, because there are too many players, the play is too unpredictable, and the payouts too small; and I know for sure that my bankroll can't support $5 rebuy tourney's yet.

Anyway. Any thoughts on rebuy/addon tourney's? Is anybody else playing them? What sort of bankroll should I have before I start playing in $5 R+A tourney's?

My gut says at least $400, since a typical tourney includes at least 2 buyins (the initial buyin plus a instant rebuy to load the table and maximize my starting stack), and an addon after the first hour... and, on a bad day, as many as half a dozen true rebuys. So if we call that an average of 4 buyins (2 initial buyins + addon + an average of one more rebuy), and follow the Ferguson 5% rule, then I need 80 times the buyin, or $400 for a $5 R+A tourney.

Thoughts?

Cake Rake Break

Ryan had posted in his blog about how the rake seriously cuts into your profits. I had commented about how in NL poker in general you want to win the huge pots and not worry about stealing small pots. That advice also minimizes the amount of rake you pay but only at higher limit games where the rake caps out. After spending more cycles on the matter I have some more observations:

* According to Cake's rake schedule page, the rake is .05 per $1 in the pot. After some observation at the tables, I found that it is *literally* a nickel after a $1 gets into the pot, it is not a 5% rake (i.e. .01 for each .20 in the pot). If the pot grows to .99 then is taken down, there is zero rake. Taken to the nth degreee, if you ONLY played small pots you could pay rakeless poker. If you were to try to optimize your bet sizes to price out draws *and* to minimize rake, you can make a bet that when called ends up on the south side of an even dollar increment. If you bet the next street and your opponent folds, you've just saved yourself five cents of rake, not insignificant.

* For most purposes, we will never max the rake. However, it is much more likely that when we do it is due to short handed play. The max rake is $1 ($20 pot) when there are 2 or 3 players dealt in, $2 ($40 pot) for 4 or 5 players at the table, and $3 ($60 pot) if the table is 6 handed or more. That being the case, there is not the same penalty for taking down small pots as there is in 1/2 games.

* Ryan's calculation of rake representing a 10% on sugar makes the assumption of being heads up. Lowest possible theoretical rake percentage (disregarding the 99 cent rake optimization technique) would be in a ten handed pot where you are only contributing 10% of the pot and thus yielding a higher sugar/rake ratio.

* Rake on fixed limit games is WAY lower, does pull .01 per .20 in the pot, and does not change based on number of players. They list the rake on a .02/.04 limit game (I assume they are referring to .04/.08, the lowest fixed limit game I can find) as only .04! A far cry from $1! Not sure why there is such an enormous discrepancy unless maybe the cyber-dealers for limit games cost a ton less than NL or something. Orrrr maybe due to the betting structure and how hard it is to build enormous pots compared to NL.

So there you go, just some stuff to keep in mind if you want to reduce the bite that Cake takes out of your sugar.

Deconstructing Ryan's decline

Ryan has been mentioning the setback to his roll while we have been at the tables. The most poignant part being that he has lost the equivalent of an original stake while completely playing by the BRM rules. The impact of course being that if he had started off his cake challenge with the exact run that he had recently experienced then he would be bankrupt and could never ever ever play poker again. Or at least would have to grind out months of freerolls to get a stake back.

This is very troubling. Of all people that I would expect to have a $50 decline, Ryan would be at the bottom of the list. Marsh could lose $50 in one hand these days and he had previously tilted off a large portion of his roll when he would even less afford it. Jasonland BRM rules means that Jason could drop $50 quickly as well. And we've seen what happens when you put $50 in Royal's hands. Will is down near the bottom of the list too but mainly because he is still buying in for $2.40 on the micro tables and it would take lotto-esque probability for him to get stacked thirty-some times in a row. Anyway, scary, because if it can happen to Ryan, it can happen to anyone.

So what's going on? Sure Ryan can kick a garbage can here or there but his actual play at the table is minimally affected and in fact he will generally try to play off of taking a bad beat (or getting d0nked on) to trap others. I have noticed a couple of time where he aggressively played his draws like an OESFD at lunch and his J pair and Club flush draw against my A6 two pair. And I recall those seeming out of character. I've also seen what seems like chasing more at the lunch game where he will call a flop and turn bet then fold on the river whereas I think he would more often try to steal along the way instead of just calling. He mentioned the term "scared money" a couple times as well. He says he's essentially missing on all cylinders; on Cake, at lunch, weeknights, and weekends.

I think that a snowball effect is one potential factor here despite Ryan's playing different games, stakes, and formats. It is likely that hands/plays/beats on a virtual .02/.04 table can be affecting actions on the real felt. It just seems too statistically infeasible for someone to run bad in three distinct different venues. Is it an OD of poker? Ryan wanted to sit out of the tourney to cut down on his table time and I know that Jeh and Marsh both have talked about how taking a break can clear the poker mind when they suggested that I lay off for a while when I was on a bad run. Certainly bad runs of cards has to be part of it. As Ryan was describing, pot it with AQ and miss. Later, rinse, repeat and you're bleeding off chips. Not hemorrhaging by any means but those all add up.

Let's figure out what is going on and how to fix it so we can all avoid the same situation.

High Stakes for Poker as a Learning Tool

Posting this NYTimes article on behalf of MB.

"A Harvard Law School professor and a group of his students formed an organization this fall — the Global Poker Strategic Thinking Society — dedicated to demonstrating that poker has educational benefits. They argue that the game, which is probability-based and requires risk assessment, situational analysis and a gift for reading people, can be an effective teaching tool, whether for middle school math or in business and law classes."

Road trip to Bellagio University next spring...

So you flopped a boat - redux

http://www.blogger.com/img/gl.link.gifA while ago I posted about Austin flopping a boat and how to play it. So there was this hand last night, I'm pretty sure it was sweetened up to seven or so and there were many callers. I am on the button looking down at AhTh and decide that I will allow myself to play it even though it is not on the list. Actually I figure that I'm likely to have the best hand pre-flop anyway.

Flop is AsTsTc. Not bad. SB checks, BB checks, entire table checks to me on the button. I am trying to figure out a decent bet size. I figure that there is about 30 chips in the pot so I think 20 is the right sized number. Ryan is for some reason pleading with me to let him see a free turn.

Reasons to bet:
* Build the pot. Anyone with a draw that they are going to go broke with will call a measly 20 here and I want to flatten someone.
* Open the door for someone who is slow-playing a Ten.
* I am NOT going to give someone with two Spade face cards a free pull at a one outer.
* To disguise the strength of my hand. Some of the table may be able to put me on a boat there but that bet can easily be interpreted as an Ace, a Ten, or possibly a position steal attempt. Anyone chasing a KsXs flush draw will be more inclined to think that their flush is good than if I checked that flop and then got in a big raising war.

Reasons not to bet:
* This is a different boat than Austin's and I am not nearly as vulnerable. The most reasonable threat that I see would be a gutshot Royal. The only other thing that could take this pot from me is a bigger boat would require someone to have come in with AA in which case I'm drawing to the case Ten, or if someone it playing KK, QQ, or JJ all weird. I want everyone else (KsXs flush or pairs 99-22) to catch their card.

I would really prefer to stack someone rather than just pick up a few extra chips from someone stabbing on the river. In all likelihood my Ace alone would probably have won the pot by itself and this is just one of those hands where there is no second best hand to pay me off. Maybe it's worth giving a free card so someone could make a flush or a lower boat but I don't think any WNP'er is going to get too invested in a flush on a paired board and the chances of someone having an underpair and catching are thin. Maybe I'm over correcting for the time Las Vegas when I flopped 8s full of Aces and JJ caught up on the river when a J came after I gave a free turn. Any thoughts?

Timing is everything?

Sounds like Marsh, Ryan, and Jason all had rough weekends. Coincidence? Are the weekend tables that much rougher or is it that the play is looser and you get bigger pots and uglier suckouts? I noted earlier that the play seemed pretty passive during my two day sessions. Does anyone have any numbers backing up player demographics vs. time of day/day of week?

Cake update - Jason

I too like Marsh was brutalized over the weekend. Some mediocre play and some tough luck. Beating the .10/.20 NL Hold'm is tough for me but I am still having some success at Omaha and Omaha 8. I am currently at about $180 with about a $20 loss over the weekend. Here are some key hands in the life of an action junkie.

http://cakepoker.com/HandHistory/?Hand=xcfAxsTFxcDEwcTExcLGw4jAwcLHzME%3d

This hand I actually won. I had just pulled a big river bluff on this guy who was a bit of a nemesis for me. He was definitely a maniac betting machine so I was confident my 99's were good here.

http://cakepoker.com/HandHistory/?Hand=xcfAxcTFxsbEw8TExcTMwYjAwcLHzME%3d

The life of brutal rivers continues.

http://cakepoker.com/HandHistory/?Hand=xcfAxsTFxc3Nx8TExMTBzIjAwcLHzME%3d

The nuts is not always the winner in Omaha 8. Given the lack of action on the flop, I figured my straight was good at the river.

http://cakepoker.com/HandHistory/?Hand=xcfAxsTFxsfGxMTExMbBwYjAwcLHzME%3d

A nice hand in Omaha to pick up against short stacks. I was hoping the AA would hold but it was the 5,7 that did the trick.

http://cakepoker.com/HandHistory/?Hand=xcfAxsTFxcDHxMTExMHMzYjAwcLHzME%3d

Standard 100 -1 shot hits in NL Hold'm and I lose.

http://cakepoker.com/HandHistory/?Hand=xcfAxsTFxcDHxMTExMLGwojAwcLHzME%3d

Ace 8 in the villain's hand continued to be my nemesis. Other than re raising out of the BB with AQ, I think there was not much I could do.

http://cakepoker.com/HandHistory/?Hand=xcfAxsTFxcDHxMTExcXDx4jAwcLHzME%3d

I was in a rut so I figured I would try the unsuited SpainR. Finally a friendly river, thanks Ryan.

http://cakepoker.com/HandHistory/?Hand=xcfAxsTFxcDHxMTExcXNw4jAwcLHzME%3d

Haunted by the Jasonland type call. 1 Big Dick would call down any continuation bet. I can just think of the rationale. I have 2 live cards, a runner runner straight draw, and I want to see the turn. Small pot was the only victory.

http://cakepoker.com/HandHistory/?Hand=xcfAx8TFxcDAxsTExcXGwojAwcLHzME%3d

Brutal flop. With the check call, followed by the check min raise I know I am likely dead but shove anyways.

http://cakepoker.com/HandHistory/?Hand=xcfAx8TFxcfEzcTExMDCzIjAwcLHzME%3d

Tough river in Omaha. I have pocket 10's and 2 random cards.

http://cakepoker.com/HandHistory/?Hand=xcfAx8TFxcfEzcTExMHGzIjAwcLHzME%3d

Another brutal river in Omaha. I made the strongest move I could with a lead out, followed by a raise followed by an all in. Luckily pocket 99's couldn't get away from his hand so I win a small side pot. This would have been a sweet pot to scoop.

http://cakepoker.com/HandHistory/?Hand=xcfAx8TFxc3MzMTExMfBwYjAwcLHzME%3d

Villain makes the perfect sized river bet to have me make the crying call. I have pocket 3's and 2 random cards. I knew the 3's were good at the time I made the pot sized turn raise, and I can't get the chasers to fold.

http://cakepoker.com/HandHistory/?Hand=xcfAxsTFxsfGxMTExMLExIjAwcLHzME%3d

This was the most difficult decision I had to make all weekend. I have A,A,K,4 with the nut flush draw. The raise here basically makes myself and the villain pot committed so I either go all in or fold here. My read is a set but with all of the redraws, I may be close to even money. I did not have enough history at the time, but villain is a very aggressive player with huge chip swings. He could have had something as little as top 2 pair, which I am ahead of. Or possibly a wrap of some sort. The deep stacks also complicate things. He made it up to $70 later at this table, then proceeded to lose it all. Hindsight being 20/20 I think I should have shoved here.

Comments and suggestions are always welcomed, particularly on the last hand.

Some hands from the weekend.

I haven't had time to update the spreadsheet after a full weekend of Cake action, but it suffice it to say that it sucked ass. I am now at ~560.00 though and that feels good, as I was just brutalized all weekend. I wanted to get a few of the interesting hands up here though for review. In case you guys haven't seen it, I have also started a mini blog just for the Cake Challenge stuff. If I feel like its entertaining or I need help with hands, I will post it here, but if it's just a mini update on my progress, I will keep that over at That's Not Cake from now on. Regular updates will still be on there though.

(44) I don't remember the details on why I thought this guy would fold, but I knew this board was super super scary. Risky business.

This was pretty sick. I call his raise preflop hoping he has a big hand and that I could bust him. He leads at the flop and I try to take the pot from him. He flat calls and I am done with the hand until... Now he checks again but I have him on AK or something similar after calling my RR on the flop. So I jam the turn, he ships (as expected) and I snap call with 1 out.

Got Martin'd on this one. Ryan, I feel your pain lol.

This hand was a bit of a heartbreaker. I don't think I like this guys call on the turn, but it is expected I guess. I am glad though that I brought out the hammer at every opportunity, putting as much pressure on him as possible.

Sometimes you are just one marginal call away from the jackpot.

This one sucked, I had AA.. he only had .70 left by the river, so the turn is the key point.

This one doesn't look as sick on HH as it did in the moment. But getting it all in with dead money in there too against A9 was great. Flopping a set was really great. WTF on the turn sucked ass.

I am fine with how I played this I think. I limp called OTB with 55. Very safe flop for my set, and I have multiple customers and a very aggressive original raiser. Turn completes the badugi, and I feel every so safe still. Nice bet by the OR and the meat in the sandwich comes along again. If they had bigger stacks, I would have put in some type of raise here, but any bet on the river was all in for the OR and a minraise from me put the meat all in. As expected, the OR puts in a bet that leaves him with $1.10 or something behind, and the meat flat calls. I spring my trap and um ya..

Stupid god damned short stack luckboxes lol

This donk was throwing a mini party, and I made what was probably a marginal call against him. The turn was so gross, but the river made me happy.

I call the minbet from the BB just hoping to stack this shorty. I don't really like to call the short stacks with 22-55 like this, there just isn't enough upside, but in the BB I am a sucker to set mine...

And now I would like to tell two mini stories. One of me getting owned, and one of me owning.

Getting owned by short stack fucking super dipshit.

This guy had been shipping his stack with almost ATC, but a lot of time he do it on the flop. I picked this spot to get it in against him. Friggin lame, but it happens.

Then, a mere 6 hands later, we bump heads again. Are you serious?

Then on a different table, after that little bastard left after doubling through me twice with trash, this happens. C'mon!

Then, in a fit of irony, I get my money in bad against him and suckout to send him home. HA!

Now me owning this poor guy. Here is the situation I described at WNP, in all its gory detail.

Our tale starts out sanely enough. This player was pretty erratic, and wasn't afraid to bluff as he proves here. I just couldn't put him on a 5 here for some reason, and thus our relationship begins..

2 hands later, I win this pot from him with J10. I flop top pair, but check to him hoping he will bet for me since I had just stacked him and he seemed ripe for a big mistake. Turn sucks, so I check again. He bets 4.00 but I just can't bring myself to fold. River pairs the 9, which is a really good card for me, but I doubt he is folding a K in any case. I ship on him and he validates my thoughts of weakness by folding.

This hand is one hand later, and he is obviously pretty steamed at this point. I call his raise with Ac9c, putting him on ATC tilt. Flop comes the nuts for me (TWSS). Normally I would just lead right now and bet this, but I just know that this guy will bet this for at least 2 barrels with probable air, and I don't want to scare him away on a pretty scary flop. I also want to give him the chance to catch a club in which case I am pretty sure he is going broke. I check-call the flop, check min-raise the turn, and he just ships. Bummer dude.

FF ~20 hands. This is where the ownership is completed and he leaves. So sick. I raise it preflop with KK, and he flat calls with KJ, we both smooth play the flop, and then he takes a stabby type bet on the turn. I am really hoping that he has a flush here, and that he will lead big on the river. He didn't have a flush, but open ships the river. Awesome.

Poorly played I think

Just had a short session and only got involved in two hands, both of which I think I played poorly. Looking for advice.

Pick up KJos in the SB. Marginal holding out of position. Call the other .02. Made the nuts in a walk and screwed up the river. I'm positive the check/raise was a good idea but was the raise too much? I know I didn't get callers here but is that a better EV+ move on average at these stakes? If someone was slow playing their two pair or something then I could get paid. What is the right move there? I don't think I can just flat call the re-raise so I will have to sacrifice the original stabber. No notes on the re-raiser either. I don't like my play but don't know if it might still be correct for these tables.

Pick up QQ on the button. 4 of the 5 people in front of me have limped and I have SB and BB yet to act behind me. I try to figure out how much to bet to surgically extract out one caller without causing a domino effect of calls. In the end I get lazy and just overbet the pot. Not sure if I'm just being ROTty because I didn't get someone calling me down with JT flopping top pair.

Day tables seem tighter/more nitty? Anyone else have generalizations of play at different times of the day?

Cake Challenge - Austin

New link for my spreadsheet up on Edit Grid.

Nothing new really going on with me, but I'll probably play a bit tonight hoping to crack the $100 mark that has been eluding me as of late.

Cash or Tourney?

Since the matter came up last night with some spirited discussion, thought I'd throw it out here. Marsh and Ryan were both sparring about the relevance of measuring the number of hands played in cash games versus tourneys. I hold that it is best to record time spent at either a cash game or tourney and record number of hands for each as well. Then after logging into a spreadsheet you can cut the data any way you want. I am even having second thoughts about recording sessions at multiple tables as one line item since it slightly muddies the waters of hourly table yield. I do record how many tables I was playing at and can get an average take and that is close enough for government work.

So how best to determine where you should be playing? I have to think it is wherever you have the best real world hourly rate regardless of number of hands played or tables you are sitting at. I still want to record number of hands just so I can do calculations later but my punch in and punch out times are going to be the measurement of earning potential/hour. I think the $/hand measurement alone is irrelevant for deciding between ring games and touraments since it does not take into account multitabling. $/hand IS an important metric for tuning your play though so there is no way I'm going to leave that stat out of the log sheet.

Anyway, that's my take on the matter.

Clip of the day: AA vs 72os

Ran across this clip from 2006 WSOP. What happens when you run the best starting hand in Hold'em against the worst? Not what you'd expect.

Cake update - Marsh

Current total: $604.27

I have pretty well settled into .10-.20 now. I have totally changed my approach, and what I am doing now closely resembles real poker. I basically take my A game as the baseline approach, and make adjustments from there.

At the levels below I was instead taking a more bulk approach. I tried to basically play as many hands as I could, and play my premium hands super aggressive and let the fact that people will pay you off with lesser hands take it's course.

At these levels though, people simply fold a LOT more. It went from super passive to friggin tight in a hurry. I tried to run over the table at first but all I got were folds. Of course they would call me with the nuts or near nuts. So I started making adjustments and came to the lame conclusion that I had to actually play poker. This means value betting instead of value-shipping. It means laying down AQ preflop sometimes. It means paying attention to position, not just clicking the bet pot button, floating, check-raising, taking better notes etc. What a chore...lol.

Anyhow, I have a better feel but still am experiencing quite a bit of variance in my roll. It is however steady in its upward climb, so that is good. I have been taking an unusual amount of beats lately, but I have been rolling with the punches like a champ. I am more just aware of the beats than tilted by them. I have a bunch of hands to share now, I will just put some quick notes by the hands and let you guys take what you will from them. Comments always welcome, good, bad or indifferent.

Value called this maniac with AJ

I don't know what this dude had, but it shows the importance of not letting up on betting.

Value bet here. Should I have bet the turn though?

This is pretty hilarious how slow this guy played his monster hand.

I don't know what this guy thought he had, but I am glad I didn't chicken out.

Pretty fucking sick.

I wasn't going anywhere once I got that flop. (And I am pretty sure he wasn't either, regardless of the turn)

This is where staying aggressive pays off big. You will notice that I bet and raised at every possible opportunity.

This chump check-raises me all in on the flop, but I sniff him out and call with my overpair.

This guy has a short stack and was tossing it around. I bet my 2nd pair on the flop for value, get it in on the turn with the same thought. Friggin gutters..

This is a Ryan tribute hand. I had notes on this guy, and they read "Will check the nuts even on river looking to check raise" I rule. The turn club froze me, but when he checks the river I would normally bet out 100% of the time.

I play this guy a lot, and he hates me. I guess I don't hate his ship here, but with the nuts I am going nowhere.

This was my first hand at this table. Sometimes (never) it's just this easy.

Standard. This dude check calls the flop and turn with 2nd pair. What else could he do?? Fold?? :/

This fucking retard had JJ

This time I am the fucking retard with JJ. Winning the whole pot would have been nice..

Annoying but standard

I guess I was blinded by this guys screen name?

He didn't have much of a stack.

I make a huge check raise on the flop for all of this dudes chips. And it even worked! Not the out I was expecting though.

This is the final hand against that one guy that I had stacked twice already. I didn't do anything special, just that I had better hands to start with, and better hands on the flop. He left after this one..
I play this hand passively until I hit the nuts, then I pull the ol' check/minraise on this guy trying to either get him to reshove or to at least commit himself. He does so and calls the river value ship too.

This was sick, because I had this fucker on exactly KQ after he just flat called my preflop hammer and then led at that flop. I flat called because his bet left him with 6.10 left and I knew that if he had a Q he would fire at the turn, either shipping betting half his stack, which I can then min raise and he would be all in. Turn was sick, but I couldn't let them go. I get some decent reads occasionally online, but I try not to follow through too much on these types of reads because I think I will lose more by not just playing more straight forward.

I check min-raise here too, but I am hoping this guy has an A and will just ship when I do it. He does not oblige, so I just open ship the river instead which he calls with presumably an Ace but I don't know for sure.

Ring game/tournament similarities

Just got done with a tourney and it dawned on me that the micro-stakes cash games bear a striking resemblence to medium stage tournament play. There are lots of coin flip shove/call situations. Big pair shoving is a tactic you see. Lot of big pots get the money in on the flop. And such. Even though some people buy in for the full $4.00 or 100 BB, the play still seems to be very "all or nothing." Players for some reason seem to be compelled to shove or call of their chips with KQos as if they are going to be blinded off soon. Without a doubt the micro-stakes play a part in the equation since it's "just a couple bucks" so I think it is easy for people to let that amount of money go. And when someone is throwing a party, look out. Definitely a different game than the Week Night Poker game. No gradual pot building. Little folding. Outrageous moves with air. Donkerrific play. A style world's apart from our game but not completely foreign thanks to previous tournament experience.

Separated at birth

Couple nights ago Ryan mentioned the similarities between Farha and Bogart. I ran across this guy's blog looking up win rate info and he has a few separated at birth posts including the Farha/Bogart one.

Part I
Part II
Part III

What's your run rate?

Hey guys, Ryan pinged me earlier and suggested that I keep track of hand count on my poker log which I actually was already doing since I based my log on Ryan and Marsh's template.

So my question is, what's your run rate? For those of you on the Cake Challenge now, how many small blinds do you earn each hand you play on average? And for those of you who have moved to different stakes, has the ratio changed substantially? I'd guess that NLHE and O8 have different run rates?

It is still early for me now and I don't think I have enough data for this to be relevant but right now I'm at about 1.54 SB's/hand.

A public apology to Matt

For those of you who were there last night you saw part of what happened with Matt and my perplexed reaction to the texting going back and forth. I thought that I just got an text from Matt asking if poker was at the normal place. To which I responded that it was then I got more texts saying that he got tired of waiting and then he took off. I was totally confused at the situation.

After I got back home, I emailed Matt to apologize for the mixup and I checked my cell phone and to my utter horror, there it was a phone call from Matt. An ANSWERED phone call! As Matt later verified I actually did answer the phone and said that I would send someone down to let him in. Somehow I totally spaced out that I even answered the phone much less telling someone to go down to get him.

So Matt, my most humble apologies for screwing that up so completely.

More poker-busting news

Here’s an interesting story about a veterans’ poker game getting busted up by riot cops in Dallas.

Thanks goes out to Boing Boing, again. What would I read without Boing Boing to point it out for me?

Worst Rivers Ever - A Jason Post

Worst Rivers Ever

Is this really possible? Thankfully, I am playing on line poker and not casino poker. If the stakes were higher, I think I might have to go on a long sabbatical.

Playing at a table with Marsh, I have A,6 suited in clubs. The flop of 4,5,7 with 2 clubs gives me the open ender plus the nut flush draw in the small blind, limped pot. I check, one small bet, a couple limpers fold and I call. The next card is a spade, putting 2 spades on the board. I decide I must have the best draw and bet the turn about 2/3 of the pot. Call. The only card in the deck where I can lose all my chips hits, the 8 of spades. Gives me the straight and I discount the runner, runner flush draw that hit. I make a pot size bet, hopefully disguised as a bluff. Villain puts me all in and I call. Villain had A-5 suited in spades for the nuts.

Playing at another table, little action until the river, both fairly deep stacked at about 150BB. The final board is something like 3,3,6,7, 10 with 4 diamonds, 3,6,7 and 10 of diamonds, 10 of diamonds is the river card. I have the Ace of diamonds. Villain had bet the turn and I decide to check raise the river. I check, villain bets, I make a big check raise which basically pot commits me and villain puts me all in. My read is that it is really unlikely that villain has the house as he is an aggressive player on the button and I believe it was unraised preflop making pockets pretty unlikely. 3,6 or 3,7 don’t add up so I call. Villain had 8,9, of diamonds for the straight flush. The one card in the deck where I can lose all my chips comes again.

Playing pot limit Omaha high I have A,8,4, x with the ace suited in diamonds. The flop is A, 8,4 with 2 diamonds. I make a pot sized bet and villain calls. The next card is a 2 non diamond. I make another bet pot committing the villain. Villain calls with A,8,2, x no diamonds. All the diamonds are outs for me, otherwise likely split pot. The river card is a 2 giving villain the full house.

Playing pot limit Omaha high 6 handed I have QQ, 7, 3 and decide to just call as my hand is really junk unless a q hits without a made straight possibility. Everyone limps and the flop is Q,K low card. I bet out from the blind, I am raised and I reraise pot. Flat call. Likely either a wrap straight on broadway or a lower set. The next card is a K giving me the full boat. I discount quads as very unlikely as most all Omaha players put in at least a small raise with KK,xx. I pot commit myself, villain puts me all in and I call. Villain had KQ.

Playing another limped pot in NL Hold’m I have A,5 unsuited in the blind. Turn of a 5 makes the board A,K,9,5 rainbow. I bet I am min raised and I min raise back. Rare for me to min raise and now I know why. Villain calls. The next card is the innocuous 4. I make a pot sized bet and I am put all in. Trips don’t add up in an unraised pot, perhaps A, 9 or perhaps another 2 pair. I call. Villain had 2,3 os.

I also ran my QQ into AA. One limper and I hit pot from the button. Small blind ships for 100 BB. Very tough decision. My image is one where I am constantly raising from the button but now I have a real hand. Who would ship with AA or KK against an aggro player from the button? I call. Villain had AA and I am stacked.

I am feeling a bit sorry for myself with these results. I see the pros blog about how they can’t win a coin flip. Yesterday I could not even win when my opponent has a 3 outer with a 2 or a 4 outer for the 4 with the straight. Or one outers where I am assured to stack myself. Other than the stupid min raise in the A-5 hand, and possibly the QQ hand, I can’t see myself getting away from any of these other hands. Two very specific cards hit, the 8 of spades and the 10 of diamonds, which stacked me.

Go in for my battle or sit out for a while? Retire and find another activity? I am down to about $180, after hovering around $300 for a couple weeks. I know Marsh says sometimes poker is like breaking a few tackles and then getting hit by a spectator who shoots you but I feel like the swat team came after me with all arms drawn.

24 hour of Cake - down 18 cents

I took my first hand of the Cake Challenge almost 24 hours ago. Since then I've played one SnG and about 220 hands of cash game spanning five sessions. Observations so far from an admittedly relatively small sample:

* People are serious (enough) at micro-stakes. I've seen some loose play but not substantially different from other higher stakes.

* I've had AA versus AK in three huge hands so far.

* As pointed out by Ryan and Marsh, there is basically zero folding once someone puts substantial money into the pot. This often reduces the game down to card catching/flop catching exercises.

* I'm still getting a feel for how to play in this environment. Calling off a shove from a loose player when I had AKos was apparently a mistake. The huge shove with premium pairs (and sometimes AK) is a recurring theme. I am looking forward to getting comfortable with these tables so that I can start grinding away.

* Despite the stakes, I am playing for my life here. Every cent is critical at this juncture and I was really bummed to have my AA cracked in my first session. I have had bankroll sugar once in the middle of my first session and that has been it. My high water mark is being up six cents. I am way more concerned about dodging a four cent big blind than I ever have been about any other blinds even at a 1/2 table.

* I am really glad that I am strictly keeping to the 5% rule, even to the extreme that I'm buying in for $2.36. Limiting my exposure has prevented me from dinging my roll. Yes, I know that's what bankroll management is all about but starting out and at these stakes it is all too easy to exceed the 5% and start the snowball of chasing losses.

* Cannot wait until I have a bigger roll so that I start multi-tabling. Staring at one table is trying at times especially when I am card dead. But I just check my hand against "the list" and fold accordingly.

That's it for now. Thanks all for helping me get started on my Cake Challenge.

Entering the Cake Challenge

Hello all...I have entered the fray. See the exciting play by play action on my blog: TrueCakeChallenge.blogspot.com. I will also be updating the TNP blog with the highlights.

I have had two sessions so far. The first one was 20 hands long and I basically lost everything in an AA versus AdKd hand after Villain flopped four to the nut flush and I figure he thought he had an over or two as well. That put me in the hole from the get go and I'm starting off down 5%.

Second session was 100 hands long. Stacked AK with AA this time but lost chips on an odd hand. I raised with 99 and got one caller. Flop was 777 and Villain put out a feeler-ish looking bet. I min-raised (I know, I know). Got a flat call. Ace on the turn and a shove then I fold. Also had Ryan sit down at my table. Don't know if he noticed me.

I net out -37 cents from the second session and am now down to $47.29.

Questions:

* What are your guys' ranges for hands to play?

* Do you steal blind from late position?

* Tell me what you would have done with the 777 flop.

* Am I being too nitty with my range of hands? (AA-88, AKs-ATs, AKo-AQo, KQs, KQo, QJs, JTs)

Thanks guys!

Thanksgiving Pokers

So I had like a dozen hands from over Thanksgiving I was going to post, but Cake sucks and they're all "currently unavailable" (ie: lost to the void).

Instead I have a single hand from today which involves a few situations that I completely suck at. I'm out of position against a tight player and almost two buy-ins deep. How's my play?

KK

My image was aggro but not insane. I went into passive check-call mode as soon as he min-raised me on the flop. I'm not betting again because I do NOT want to have to call a raise for my stack, whereas if I just had 100 BB I would have no problem with getting it in on the turn. Is THAT a mistake? There isn't any difference other than the amount of money that's on the line, it's not like his range changes.

Anyone else turn into a total nit when deep?